Health and Healthcare
Solid Biotech Stocks With the Best Revenue Growth for 2014
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Any time investors look for companies growing sales the most, one area that almost always stands out is the up and coming biotech stocks. After all, sales can grow from close to nothing into the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars if the U.S. Food & Drug Administration approves a drug. 24/7 Wall St. is looking at the best stocks for each sector ahead of the year-end to see where the best growth and value opportunities exist for investors in 2014.
The focus here is on the biggest revenue growers in the established biotech sector. While many emerging and development stage companies may have massive growth in the years ahead, we have focused on companies with approved products and treatments, and these are all either profitable now or they are making the turn into profitability.
In order to keep this report ranked in groups, sales growth was based on multiple valuation tiers. The first tier was the big four biotechs with market capitalization of $50 billion and higher. The second tier drops all the way down to $10 billion and up to $50 billion. The last tier was the $2 billion to $10 billion range. Due to the already very speculative nature of biotechs, companies worth less than $2 billion with pending approvals and very mixed expectations were not included.
Companies that have no approved products with existing sales for most of 2013 were also screened out, otherwise some revenue growth figures could have been exponential. Companies where the products were just approved, or where persistent losses were expected to continue, were also screened out.
We picked the top grower for the big four biotech stocks, two of the biotech stocks from the $10 billion to $50 billion tier and three of the top revenue growers in the $2 billion to $10 billion biotech stock range. These selections were based on the most impressive growth figures, as well as how many peers there are in each group.
In order to avoid any dominance on just one company, these have simply been ranked in descending order by market capitalization. Earnings and revenue estimates were taken from Thomson Reuters. Due to the smaller biotech tier identified here ($2 billion to $10 billion) all having ramping sales and likely the first year of real earnings in 2014, the expected multiples on earnings and sales were not included. The driving force behind each company’s growth also has been addressed.
Gilead Sciences
> 2014 Sales Growth: 26%
> Market Cap: $109 billion
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is the largest biotech by market value, with a market cap of $109 billion. Its $71 price handle is within about $2 of its all-time highs put in recently. While the largest by size, Gilead is expected to have the best growth of the largest biotechs in 2014 despite lower growth in 2013. It is expected to have more than 50% earnings growth on 26% revenue growth. That puts earnings at $3.08 per share and revenue at $13.7 billion in 2014, creating forward multiples of about 23 times for earnings and about eight times for revenue. Credit Suisse recently suggested that its back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest a ballpark of $4 billion hepatitis C virus market size in 2014, and Gilead’s 2014 Sofosbuvir revenue estimate was raised to $3 billion, which will be the new sales growth driver.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
> 2014 Sales Growth: 27%
> Market Cap: $27.5 billion
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is one of the high-flyer biotech stocks with a super-high price, and shares have nearly doubled from trough to peak in 2013. Its market value is $27.5 billion, and we would remind readers that this stock was under $60 less than two years ago, so a lot of growth has been factored in. Sales growth is expected to be almost 50% in 2013, but that is expected to be another 27% sales growth to $2.6 billion in 2014. Earnings growth is expected to be almost 57% to $5.99 in earnings per share in 2014. All in all, Regeneron trades at 47 times expected 2014 earnings and just over 10 times expected 2014 sales. Drivers here are additional indications for its Eylea drug and advancing its clinical pipeline in collaboration with Sanofi.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals
> 2014 Sales Growth: 27%
> Market Cap: $23 billion
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) is just behind Regeneron in market value at this time. Its market cap is more than $23 billion, and at $119 its shares are up almost 50% from trough to peak in the past year. After an expected 36% sales growth in 2013, sales are predicted to rise almost 27% more to $1.95 billion in 2014. After an expected earnings growth of more than 40% in 2013, earnings should be up another 12% in 2014. For forward valuations, this translates to more than 35 times expected 2014 earnings and more than 12 times expected revenue. Alexion’s main driver is robust Soliris sales growth with an expanding global commercial presence. S&P Capital IQ recently forecast gross margins of around 90% for 2013 and 2014.
Incyte
> 2014 Sales Growth: 43%
> Market Cap: $7.5 billion
Incyte Corp. (NASDAQ: INCY) has been in major rally mode in 2013, with shares rising almost 200%. The company’s market cap is $7.5 billion, and its price near $47 was within $2 of a decade high. Incyte is expected to have 19% revenue growth in 2013, but that growth is expected to rise up by 43% to $508 million in 2014. A big bump here is that Incyte is supposed to make its turn to profitability in 2014 as well, following years of losses. Incyte recently raised $750 million in convertible debt, and the main driver here is its approved Jakafi as a treatment for myelofibrosis. Other potential drivers are positive mid-stage studies for drugs in pancreatic cancer, psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis.
Medivation
> 2014 Sales Growth: 71%
> Market Cap: $4.6 billion
Medivation Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) has seen its shares rise about 50% from its low of the past year, and its market cap has grown to $4.6 billion. With shares around $61, its stock is down close to 10% from its all-time high put in very recently, and analysts see another $10 of upside on average. After sales growth of 36% expected in 2013, Medivation sales growth is projected to be 71% to $425 million in 2014. Medivation is supposed to start having its first real profits in 2014 at $1.00 per share. The driver here is its part of XTANDI sales as a treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with Astellas Pharma.
NPS Pharmaceuticals
> 2014 Sales Growth: 71%
> Market Cap: $2.4 billion
NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: NPSP) has been a bit of a controversial stock, with big gains followed by big pain. At $23.35, it has a 52-week range of $7.35 to $35.72, and its market cap is $2.4 billion. This stock has pulled back from close to a decade high, and the consensus price target is up at $37.00. Sales growth of a mere 11% in 2013 is supposed to turn into sales growth of 71% to almost $250 million in 2014. NPS currently is in the transition to a profitable operator, and 2014 is expected to be its first year of operating profits, at $0.53 in earnings per share. NPS’s current driver is Gattex as the first long-term treatment approved for adults with short bowel syndrome. Additional boosts are from its Sensipar royalty stream and late-stage trials turning into sales soon.
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