Teva Prospects Keep Dimming, Even If 2014 Sales Drop-Off Limited

Teva offered up two sets of outlooks for 2014. One assumes that its number one drug, Copaxone for multiple-sclerosis treatments, will face two or more generic rivals in the United States. The second range assumes that it gets to maintain market exclusivity. Copaxone sales are projected to be $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion with generic competition, versus $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion without it.

If a generic version, or versions, of Copaxone hit on June 1, Teva offered guidance of $4.20 to $4.50 in earnings per share on revenue of $19.3 billion to $20.3 billion. If no generic is introduced, then Teva sees earnings of $4.80 to $5.10 per share on revenue of $19.8 billion to $20.8 billion. The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates are $4.94 per share and $19.95 billion in revenue. In short, 2014 is looking like it will not bring any or much upside, even if a generic of Copaxone is blocked in the United States.

After looking at the data, the math does not look too bad for 2014 because it is only a $500 million difference. Where this gets bad is that it is for effectively half of the year. That means that close to $1 billion will be lost in Copaxone sales in 2015, and maybe much more if the generic versions begin to take on more widespread adoption by doctors.

To add insult to injury, Teva also announced that the vice chairman of its board of directors, Professor Moshe Many, has requested to leave his position for personal reasons. The effective date will be January 1, 2014, but the company did state that he will remain a member of Teva’s board. Teva said that Amir Elstein has been appointed to the position of vice chairman.

With former CEO Jeremy Levin leaving after a board of directors squabble, Teva remains a company with a vacancy that lost a well-respected executive.

Teva shares were indicated up close to 2.6% at $41.21, based on the loss of revenue and earnings not being a total wipeout. This is still a huge risk for 2015 and beyond. Analysts have known this was coming, so perhaps they had warned clients that the drop off could be much worse.