Regeneron Downgrade Highlights at Least Some Risks

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) seems to have held up rather well against an analyst downgrade on Wednesday. Canaccord Genuity lowered its official rating to Hold from Buy. While the downgrade may not be positive, the firm’s John Newman slashed his Regeneron price target to $525 from $700 in his call.

The reasons that Canaccord Genuity targeted were moderating EYLEA growth, a slow Praluent start and competitive risks in 2016.

Praluent’s launch trajectory was targeted in this report as slower than expected. The blame is residual price concerns, followed by an injectable formulation and a typical flatter trajectory for lipid therapies. Newman further said that he was lowering U.S. peak sales estimates to $1.4 billion by 2025 from his prior peak view of $2.6 billion. He is also concerned that Amgen’s data outcomes will surface ahead of Regeneron’s and could give Amgen a temporary but slight advantage.

All in all, the belief here in the downgrade is that Regeneron’s pipeline should produce attractive, wholly owned growth drivers. The partnered assets are another matter, and the report signals that the upside numbers from partnered assets are priced into the stock.
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Newman’s report said:

We anticipate a slowing growth trajectory for EYLEA, as we believe the boost from Protocol-T has largely been realized. Specifically, we model ~22.5% annual US growth in 2016, ~15% in 2017, 12.5% in 2018, and 10% in 2019. Importantly, we believe the greater adoption of pharmacotherapy in DME versus laser will benefit EYLEA, but gradually. We remind investors that price increases are not likely for EYLEA due to the steep discount offered by off-label Avastin usage. We look for progress on wholly-owned follow-on combinations with EYLEA, such as Ang-2 antibody, in order to re-accelerate long-term growth for Regeneron’s ophthalmology franchise.

Regeneron shares were last seen Wednesday down more than 2% to $452.91. Its consensus analyst target price was closer to $609, and Regeneron has a 52-week trading range of $393.00 to $605.93.