When some investors think about biotech, the first thoughts are of incredibly volatile companies, with clinical data and binary outcomes that can make the stocks swing up and down wildly. However, the biggest companies in the industry are not only relatively inexpensive, they are also hardly the volatility demons some investors shy away from.
A recent Jefferies research note makes the case that the multiple for the four largest biotechs has dipped below that of the S&P for the first time since early in 2011, despite displaying higher rates of growth: 11.6% versus 10.6%. Now this hardly makes the companies appropriate for conservative stock accounts, but it shows what a great value these stocks are after the sector overall has been hammered, down a stunning 33% since last summer.
Here are the four largest biotech stocks.
Amgen
Amgen posted outstanding fourth-quarter earnings and it remains a top stock for investors to buy. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) focuses on areas of high unmet medical need and leverages its biologics manufacturing expertise to strive for solutions that improve health outcomes and dramatically improve people’s lives. A biotechnology pioneer since 1980, Amgen has grown to be one of the world’s leading independent biotechnology companies, reaching millions of patients around the world and developing a pipeline of medicines with breakaway potential.
Total product revenues increased 3% from the year-ago quarter to $5,329 million, with products like Enbrel, Kyprolis, Sensipar, Prolia and Xgeva driving growth. Revenues of Amgen’s erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) Aranesp grew 4% from the year-ago quarter to $499 million, reflecting higher unit demand in the United States, given the shift in dialysis customer purchases from Epogen. This was partially offset by price and some unfavorable currency movement. But as usual, outstanding overall numbers.
Amgen’s double-digit earnings and revenue growth rate is expected to continue for the foreseeable future because of the company’s very deep clinical pipeline, which includes potential blockbusters Repatha for high cholesterol and Kyprolis for relapsed multiple myeloma. Amgen also has one of the industry’s deepest biosimilar pipelines, which is expected to generate upward of $3 billion in annual sales in the years ahead.
Amgen shareholders receive a 2.62% dividend. Thomson/First Call consensus price target for the stock is $185. Shares closed Friday at $152.73.
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Biogen
This stock is down a stunning 40% from highs that were printed in March of last year. Biogen Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) discovers, develops and delivers to patients worldwide innovative therapies for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, hematologic conditions and autoimmune disorders. Founded in 1978, Biogen is one of the world’s oldest independent biotech companies, and patients worldwide benefit from its leading multiple sclerosis (MS) and innovative hemophilia therapies.
Jefferies has acknowledged in the past that the company’s core MS drug market is facing challenges going forward, with most diagnosed patients now treated, payers limiting net benefits from price increases and competing entrants expected. With those issues in mind, the firm is still positive on Tysabri, especially for secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, with upcoming clinical data a big factor.
The analysts also feel that a combination of cost reductions in tandem with the still strong MS franchise, which may not be as challenged by competitors as some on Wall Street think, can help the company beat earnings estimates this year. With a strong pipeline, the stock is a solid choice for aggressive growth investors. Biogen also posted outstanding earnings last week and the stock rallied sharply.
The Jefferies price target is a gigantic $357, and the consensus target is even higher at $363.31. The stock closed Friday at $273.06.
Celgene
Jefferies feels this large cap biotech stock has solid upside potential for 2016. Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) has an outstanding partnered pipeline, which most think is low risk and has the potential to yield several blockbuster drugs. Certain Wall Street analysts also think the company can grow earnings 15% on a compounded annual growth rate basis going forward.
The company provided strong guidance last year surrounding its Otezla launch and encouraging feedback from doctors on the potential of new triplet regimens in myeloma. Analysts across Wall Street raised their estimates for the drug as, after a little more than a year on the market, this psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis treatment has achieved considerable prescriptions among physicians.
Celgene’s blockbuster blood cancer drug Revlimid continues to dominate. Pomalyst sales also continue to be solid. Cancer drug Abraxane is also growing at a respectable rate, so the company continues to have a strong lineup of top-selling drugs. The company reported somewhat disappointing fourth-quarter financial results. It is worth noting that the net negative impact of currency on net product sales was 1%.
Celgene and Natco came to an important patent settlement last year, which removes a huge, long-standing overhang on the stock. Revlimid makes up over 60% of the company’s total revenue, so having better clarity on the duration of its life cycle should continue to be a positive in 2016 and beyond. Plus some on Wall Street think that the terms of the settlement are incrementally more favorable than many expected.
The Jefferies price target was raised to $149. The consensus target is $139.80. The shares closed Friday at $100.32.
Gilead Sciences
This company is trading at an astounding multiple of less than seven times estimated 2016 estimated profits. Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) discovers, develops and commercializes medicines in areas of unmet medical need in North America, South America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Its products include Stribild, Complera/Eviplera, Atripla, Truvada, Viread, Emtriva, Tybost and Vitekta for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in adults; and Harvoni, Sovaldi, Viread and Hepsera products for the treatment of liver disease.
The company recently announced that the FDA has approved Letairis in combination with Eli Lilly’s Adcirca (tadalafil) for reducing the risk of disease progression and hospitalization and improving exercise ability in patients suffering from pulmonary arterial hypertension. Both Letairis and Adcirca are approved in the United States, European Union and elsewhere as once-daily treatments for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension.
The company was mauled last week when long time CEO John Martin stepped down, to be replaced by John Milligan, the company’s chief operating officer. Martin will become executive chairman. Add in some worries over competition for the company’s hepatitis C drug, and it added up to a very bad week.
Investors receive a 2.07$% dividend. The consensus price objective is $123.24. Shares closed Friday at $83.
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Just because these stocks are cheap relative to the S&P 500 now, history says they won’t stay that way, as buyers often step in big at these levels. In addition, the current consensus four-year growth expectations for the large cap biotechs has dipped since 2012 and is currently at the lowest level since 2010. In other words, cheap and somewhat ignored.
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