After last week’s big run, the market took a breather Monday and looks poised for another one Tuesday. And all of Wall Street is handicapping what the first-quarter earnings will look like. With all the pre-announcements pretty much out and factored in, now it comes down to the actual numbers. We are in a stock picker’s market, so growth selection now is critical.
This week’s top U.S. growth calls from the analysts at Jefferies focus on companies that have some outstanding upside potential. While not suitable for conservative accounts, the Jefferies selections, which include the following three leading biotech stocks, look to be outstanding choices for aggressive investors.
Alder Biopharmaceuticals
This company is working on a migraine treatment that has big potential. Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ALDR) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes therapeutic antibodies in the United States and Australia. The company’s lead product candidate, ALD403, an antibody, is in Phase 2 clinical trials to target calcitonin gene-related peptide for the prevention of migraine.
Alder also develops ALD1613, which is in the preclinical stage, to treat patients with congenital adrenal hyperplasia and Cushing’s diseases, and clazakizumab, an antibody that has been completed Phase 2b clinical trial, which inhibits the pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 for the treatment of rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis.
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The company posted very positive data last week and the stock took off. While the move was huge, the stock is still down for the year. Jefferies sees a multi-billion-dollar market opportunity and notes that the company’s superior IV dosing is significant.
The Jefferies price target is a whopping $60, and the Thomson/First Call consensus target is $47.67. The shares closed Monday at $24.71, down 4.15% on the day.
Neurocrine Biosciences
This company is partnering with a top big pharmaceutical company, and the data has been very solid. Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: NBIX) discovers and develops innovative and life-changing pharmaceuticals, in diseases with high unmet medical needs, through its novel research and development platform, focused on neurological and endocrine based diseases and disorders.
The company’s two lead late-stage clinical programs are elagolix, a gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist for women’s health that is partnered with AbbVie, and valbenazine, a vesicular monoamine transporter 2 (VMAT2) inhibitor for the treatment of movement disorders. Neurocrine intends to maintain certain commercial rights to its VMAT2 inhibitor for an evolution into a fully integrated pharmaceutical company.
Jefferies recently hosted an investor event with an industry expect to discuss the KINECT 3 data. The expert believes that both valbenazine and a competing company’s drug are superior to current standard of care. Both drugs offer safety advantages, but there is a debate about whether the drugs will have black box warnings, which the current drug does.
Jefferies has a $60 price target, but the consensus estimate is even higher at $70. The stock closed most recently at $42.93, up 3.35%.
Tesaro
This is the third biotech the Jefferies team likes, and upcoming data could move the stock. Tesaro Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRO) is an oncology-focused biopharmaceutical company that identifies, acquires, develops and commercializes cancer therapeutics and oncology supportive care products in the United States and internationally.
Its product portfolio consist of rolapitant, a neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist, which is in Phase 1 intravenous clinical trials for the prevention of chemotherapy induced nausea and vomiting; niraparib, an orally active and potent poly polymerase inhibitor to treat ovarian or breast cancers; and TSR-011, an anaplastic lymphoma kinase inhibitor, which is in Phase 1/2a dose escalation clinical trial in cancer patients. The company also offers Keytruda and Opdivo, anti-PD-1 antibody products, for the treatment of certain non-small cell lung cancers.
The Jefferies team notes that while gynecological oncologists expect success for the Phase 3 NOVA trial in the small cohort, they are less confident in the large cohort. The analysts are handicapping a 55% chance in the large cohort. It should be noted that if the results are positive in the small cohort and negative in the large, there could be 25% downside to the stock. The data are due at some point this quarter.
The $55 Jefferies price target is lower than the consensus target of $64.11, The shares closed Monday at $43.94.
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Needless to say, these are only suitable for very aggressive accounts. If a binary event goes the wrong way for a company, the downside can be big. The odds are somewhat tilted in these companies’ favor, but caution should be observed.
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