Health and Healthcare

Pharmaceutical Stocks May Be the Best Total Return Play: 3 to Buy Now

Lee Jackson

Published: July 16, 2016 9:15 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 5:40 am

If one sector has struggled this year it has been the health care sector, which is surprising given that usually it is considered to be very defensive. But ever since a Hillary Clinton tweet last year about drug pricing, the sector has been under pressure especially the pharmaceuticals. But with yields plunging, and the market getting very pricey, the top stocks are starting to look like a great total return vehicle for the rest of this year and 2017.

A new Jefferies research report reiterate the firm’s top buy in the sector and notes that while performance in the sector has been weak, some of the macro issues that started the pressure last year may be fading:

We continue to see strong underlying fundamentals in Large Cap Pharma, with the next 12 months beginning to heat up as we head towards a very rich set of catalysts. Whilst the FX headwinds may increase for many companies (excluding GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca at the level of EPS), we now see a more even balance between the overhang around US pricing from the upcoming US Presidential election and the search for yield, post Brexit, which could benefit many companies in our universe.

We screened the firm’s universe and found three stocks that make good sense now.

AbbVie

This stock is the top global pharmaceutical stocks at Jefferies and is also on the Franchise Stock Picks list. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) is a global, research-based biopharmaceutical company formed in 2013 following separation from Abbott Laboratories. The company’s mission is to use its expertise, dedicated people and unique approach to innovation to develop and market advanced therapies that address some of the world’s most complex and serious diseases. AbbVie employs more than 26,000 people worldwide and markets medicines in more than 170 countries.

One of the biggest concerns with AbbVie is what eventually might happen with anti-inflammatory therapy Humira, which generated $14 billion in sales in fiscal 2015. That was the most any drug has recorded during a single year and represents a gigantic part of the company’s overall earnings. The problem is that biosimilars and generics are itching to enter the market with Amgen leading the charge, and some Wall Street analysts project that AbbVie may have a difficult time stopping that trend.

The patent board recently instituted Coherus BioSciences’ Inter Partes Review against the Humira ‘135 patent. The outcome of the review is expected in 12 months. While most analysts remain positive on Humira duration, the expected litigation uncertainty could continue to create an overhang on the stock.

AbbVie investors are paid an outstanding 3.6% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $90, and the Thomson/First Call consensus target is posted at $70. The stock traded at Friday’s close at $63.32 per share.

Eli Lilly

This is another stock with substantial upside potential. Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) is a global health care company with numerous core products in a number of primary-care pharmaceutical markets. The company generates revenues from its pharmaceutical product and animal health segments.

The product portfolio includes Zyprexa (for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder), Gemzar (pancreatic cancer), Evista (osteoporosis), Cymbalta (depression), Cialis (erectile dysfunction), Strattera (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), Erbitux (cancer) and Alimta (chemotherapy). Eli Lilly also has a strong presence in the diabetes market.

Reported first-quarter earnings and revenue came in just slightly under consensus. While the overall numbers were unremarkable in the analysts view, Jefferies is still very focused on the company’s outstanding late-stage product pipeline, which they view as very undervalued. Eli Lilly did however raise the company’s 2016 earnings per share and revenue guidance to above the consensus estimates.

Lilly shareholders are paid a solid 2.55% dividend. Jefferies has a $105 price target for the stock, and the consensus target is set at $95.67. Shares ended Friday at $80.22.

Pfizer

This top pharmaceutical company recently made a gigantic bid for Anacor Pharmaceuticals. Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) has a very strong pipeline, and being the world’s largest drug manufacturer by sales value supports the Wall Street notion that the company can generate higher long-term revenues through the accelerated growth of its new drugs over the next five years.

The Treasury Department announced new rules for corporate tax inversions, which effectively scuttled Pfizer’s deal with Allergan. With the deal over, not only are the risk arbitrage funds buying the stock back, but some felt there was as much as a $5 weight on the stock, but top analysts now feel that investors can once again focus on the sum-of-the-parts story, which they feel is compelling, in addition to making accretive purchases like Anacor.

Pfizer has announced that it is starting 20 clinical trials this year, and more soon after, on treatments to conquer cancer, as it also seeks to gain leadership in one of the hottest and most lucrative areas of medicine. Hedge funds seem to like the stock as a total of 22 own it now.

Pfizer investors are paid a rich 3.26% dividend. The $41.50 Jefferies price objective compares with the consensus target price of$38.67. Pfizer shares changed hands at $36.77 on Friday’s close.

Despite the ongoing political candidate chirping, all these quality big pharmaceutical stocks have been around and will continue to stay around. Investors may want to buy partial positions and watch how earnings and the election cycle play out.