Why Allergan Earnings Aren’t Telling the Whole Story

The big news for Allergan PLC (NYSE: AGN) came early in the second quarter, when Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) terminated its proposed $160 billion acquisition of the Ireland-based maker of Botox. The deal was scuttled by a change in U.S. regulations related to tax inversions, and the break-up fee added $400 million to Allergan’s coffers. Allergan also completed the $40.5 billion sale of its generic drug business to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE: TEVA) on August 2.

Allergan reported second-quarter 2016 results before markets opened Monday. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.53 and revenues were $3.68 billion. In the same period a year ago, Allergan reported EPS of $3.67 on revenues of $3.63 billion. Second-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $3.34 and $4.1 billion in revenues.

On a GAAP basis, the company posted a net loss of $488 million, or $1.44 per share, including $0.19 related to the sale of its distribution business.

Quarterly revenues were up 2% year over year but were negatively affected by the loss of exclusivity on the company’s Namenda IR Alzheimer drug.

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Allergan guided 2016 revenues in a range of $14.65 billion to $14.9 billion and adjusted EPS in a range of $13.75 to $14.20. On a GAAP basis, the company expects to post a net loss per share of $1.95 to $2.15. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be about 89% and GAAP gross margin is tagged to be about 88%.

Analysts had been looking for 2016 adjusted EPS of $14.21 and revenues of $16.63 billion. For the third quarter, consensus estimates call for adjusted EPS of $3.61 and revenues of $4.25 billion.

Chief Financial Officer Tessa Hilado said:

Post the completion of the Teva transaction we have made significant progress toward strengthening our balance sheet to support our long-term growth. Using the proceeds of the Teva transaction and cash flows from operations in the second quarter, we have repaid $9.3 billion in debt, leaving us with $33.3 billion in total outstanding debt and approximately $27.6 billion remaining in cash. We plan to commence our share repurchase program shortly with the initial focus on repurchasing approximately $5 billion in shares over the remainder of the year. Upon the conclusion of this program, we will evaluate whether to move forward and repurchase the remaining $5 billion authorized by the Allergan board. This is in-line with our larger capitalization strategy – which is focused on maximizing value for our shareholders over the long-term.

Shares closed at $253.85 on Friday, up about 0.2% in a 52-week range of $195.50 to $325.27. The stock traded up about 0.3% in Monday’s premarket session at $254.68. The consensus price target for the shares is $292.06, according to Thomson/First Call.

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