Deaths Create Concerns About White House Estimates; the Future of Europe
According to the Bing COVID-19 Tracker, global cases have reached 3,193,886. Active cases totaled 1,993,529, which is higher by 33,105 in a day. Recovered cases rose to 972,719, a gain of 43,789 in a day, and deaths reached 227,638, up by 10,455.
Total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States hit 1,064,353. Active cases reached 876,524, a jump of 21,543. Recovered cases numbered 126,325, or 8,222 higher, and fatal cases in America hit 61,504, an increase of 2,549. A ray of positive news is that recovered cases have run ahead of fatal cases for several days.
Now That The Official Toll Makes No Sense, What Does?
Models used by the Trump Administration can no longer be accurate. Fairly recently, a highly optimistic forecast put deaths through the first week of August at 60,000. More recently, the prediction was increased to 66,000. However, deaths topped 61,500 today. The 66,000 figure is likely only two days away, and there are about 12 weeks between now and August.
Even if the average death toll in America drops to 1,000 a day between now and August, the figure will rise sharply above the 66,000 threshold. At least one model suggests deaths will end completely by late July, but that has been met with a good deal of skepticism. If the death toll dives in the next few weeks, it is still likely that 100,000 people will die before the end of summer. It is unimaginable that no one will die due to COVID-19 between then and the end of 2020.
Among the earliest forecasts released by the White House, on April 2, the administration said it expected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths before early August. It was not clear which of the many models for the spread of COVID-19 was used to pick the range. However, a death figure toward the low end of that spread of numbers is certain.
Europe’s Two Stories
The horrible death rates in Spain and Italy appear to have leveled off. Spain still ranks second among all nations with total confirmed cases of 236,899. Deaths have reached 24,275, which is extraordinary for a nation with a population of 46 million people. As mentioned, the United States, with a population of 329 million, has had 61,504 deaths. The rise of deaths in Spain has come down sharply to 453 today. That is well below a rate of over 1,000 a day just three weeks ago.
Italy has the third-largest number of confirmed deaths among all nations. It stands at 203,591 now, out of a population of 61 million. Deaths there total 27,682. However, the number of deaths slowed to 323 today.
There is also reason to be optimistic about the rise in Germany, which has the fifth-largest total of confirmed deaths in the world. That figure is 161,539 today. Deaths, at 6,467, rose a modest 147. The number of deaths in Germany is considered remarkably low, given its population of 82.4 million. This has been attributed to early social distancing practices and widespread testing, but these theses have not been entirely proven.
The worry about Europe is that some nations with few confirmed cases and deaths will see cases increase sharply in the weeks ahead. This list certainly includes Portugal, which has posted 24,505 confirmed cases and 973 deaths. It shares its northeastern and eastern borders with Spain.
The figures in the Nordic nations could also rise from relatively low levels. The Netherlands has 38,802 confirmed cases and 4,711 deaths, while Denmark has 9,206 confirmed cases and 443 deaths. Each country shares a border with Germany. Even if the death toll in Germany is low, the number of cases is high. There is no guarantee Denmark and the Netherlands can hold death rates as low as Germany’s.
Poland, Germany’s neighbor to the east has a very low number of confirmed cases at 12,640, and deaths number 624. It has a population of 37.9 million, which is 80% of Spain’s total.
There may be some reason that countries outside Spain and Italy have not posted high confirmed cases and deaths, compared to parts of Europe that are geographically close. Do they have better social distancing policies or better testing? There is scant evidence that these have been markedly superior to other parts of Europe.
If there is another wave coming in Europe, it may well be among nations where confirmed cases and deaths are unusually low.
Who Has the Key to Future COVID Cases and Deaths?
At the end of the day, what organization has the best model to forecast cases and deaths, either in the United States or globally? In America, there are White House briefings, CDC numbers and data from half a dozen think tanks and universities. None is close to being universally accepted. To a large extent, this is because factors like the future of social distancing and the discovery of better treatments are unknown.
The same factors play into forecasts in the developed nations, both in Europe and Asia.
There are no acceptable models for huge developing nations, including India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. India has a population over a billion, Pakistan and Indonesia over 200 million, and Nigeria and Bangladesh over 150 million. Their health care systems, information-gathering infrastructure and deaths by other terrible diseases mean they will never have accurate counts of COVID-19 cases or fatalities. Tens of thousands who have died of COVID-19 already have been laid to rest.
For several reasons, the global confirmed cases and death toll will never be known.
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