A growing number of scientists believe that the increase in daily deaths due to COVID-19 in America is not over. So far, it has moved above 1,000 a day. Social distancing remains scattered, and many adults still do not wear masks. The extent to which people do not protect themselves and others appears to drive the virus into a geographic area first. New cases rise, followed by deaths. Then, and only then, the ways people act to contain the disease become more common. It is, however, too late to keep tremendous peaks from occurring.

Those patterns have started to form in large hotspots, and there is more proof that a lack of preventive measures is deadly at a staggering level.

As the number of fatal cases has moved above 1,000 a day, among the questions is whether that will increase to 2,000. The widely followed University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts show 201,129 deaths in the United States by the first of November. An earlier model from the same organization showed a much lower figure.

To reach the 200,000 level, some days deaths almost will certainly have to come in at over 2,000 a day. The model calls for an increase in deaths of 57,000 between now and then. That date is a little over 12 weeks away.

Just a few weeks ago, the 2,000 deaths a day in the United States seemed unimaginable. Most days since May 1, daily COVID-19 deaths were below 1,000. Now it has moved ahead of 1,000 a day. The pace toward 2,000 has begun to accelerate. As confirmed cases surge across much of the south and west, the daily figure increasingly has been over 70,000. Deaths tend to lag new cases by about two weeks.

A rise of deaths to 2,000 a day was unimaginable just two weeks ago. It is not just imaginable now; it has become likely.

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