The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine has one of the most carefully followed and widely regarded COVID-19 prediction models for deaths, daily infections and testing, mask use, hospital resource use and social distancing. The projections cover every country in the world. Recently, the researchers forecast that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would reach 539,000 by April 1. The data also was issued by state.

It is staggering to think that another 250,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 between now and the spring, but that is the forecast. Almost 290,000 Americans have died from the disease already. Deaths have started to rise by as many as 3,000 a day. Total confirmed cases in America have hit 15,511,043, up by over 100,000 in a day. The daily confirmed case increase has routinely risen to 200,000.

Hospitalizations, a primary marker of how many Americans are extremely ill, have topped 100,000 and continue to rise. In many hospitals throughout the country, ICU bed capacity has become strained. These are all the cities that have run out of ICU beds.

IHME’s methodology to predict deaths relies on several parameters. Mask wearing is among these. If 95% of Americans wore masks in public, combined with a vaccine rollout, 66,000 lives could be saved compared to the current projection. Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director, made the importance of this crystal clear, “Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out.”

These are the 116 American counties where no one has died from COVID-19.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed IHME’s current projection scenario by April 1, 2021, for each state. The calculation includes the state, its total population and the IHME forecast for total deaths. We have also included deaths per 100,000 people to make state-to-state comparisons more accurate.

State	Population	Projected Deaths	Deaths per 100K
United States of America	328,239,523	538,893	164.18
Alabama	4,903,185	8,702	177.47
Alaska	731,545	291	39.83
Arizona	7,278,717	12,728	174.86
Arkansas	3,017,804	4,472	148.20
California	39,512,223	54,120	136.97
Colorado	5,758,736	10,797	187.50
Connecticut	3,565,287	8,163	228.95
Delaware	973,764	1,262	129.62
Florida	21,477,737	33,232	154.73
Georgia	10,617,423	3,311	31.18
Hawaii	1,415,872	780	55.10
Idaho	1,787,065	2,534	141.78
Illinois	12,671,821	27,497	216.99
Indiana	6,732,219	10,493	155.86
Iowa	3,155,070	4,994	158.28
Kansas	2,913,314	4,490	154.13
Kentucky	4,467,673	4,940	110.56
Louisiana	4,648,794	9,807	210.96
Maine	1,344,212	834	62.07
Maryland	6,045,680	10,775	178.23
Massachusetts	6,892,503	15,224	220.88
Michigan	9,986,857	17,454	174.77
Minnesota	5,639,632	7,901	140.09
Mississippi	2,976,149	5,799	194.85
Missouri	6,137,428	8,371	136.39
Montana	1,068,778	2,196	205.48
Nebraska	1,934,408	3,385	174.99
Nevada	3,080,156	4,870	158.11
New Hampshire	1,359,711	1,180	86.79
New Jersey	8,882,190	26,165	294.58
New Mexico	2,096,829	5,747	274.06
New York	19,453,561	48,932	251.53
North Carolina	10,488,084	12,997	123.92
North Dakota	762,062	1,552	203.60
Ohio	11,689,100	16,025	137.09
Oklahoma	3,956,971	4,097	103.54
Oregon	4,217,737	5,169	122.56
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	27,797	217.13
Rhode Island	1,059,361	2,255	212.85
South Carolina	5,148,714	7,611	147.82
South Dakota	884,659	2,062	233.08
Tennessee	6,829,174	10,494	153.66
Texas	28,995,881	39,704	136.93
Utah	3,205,958	2,884	89.97
Vermont	623,989	154	24.64
Virginia	8,535,519	11,766	137.85
Washington	7,614,893	6,669	87.58
West Virginia	1,792,147	3,057	170.60
Wisconsin	5,822,434	8,608	147.83
Wyoming	578,759	768	132.78

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