Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) is getting shelled this morning.  The company released “positive study data” this morning on trials for its obesity treatment Lorcaserin.  But the real issue around the results is that it looks like the Wall Street answer is just “That’s it?”….

Arena’s positive top-line results from its behavioral modification and Lorcaserin for overweight and obesity management is the first of two pivotal trials evaluating the safety and efficacy for weight loss and weight management.  The company noted that statistical significance was achieved on all three of the co-primary endpoints versus placebo.  The endpoints were the proportion of patients achieving 5% or greater weight loss after 12 months, the difference in mean weight loss compared to placebo after 12 months, and the proportion of patients achieving 10% or greater weight loss after 12 months.

The study showed that 47.5% of Lorcaserin patients lost greater than or equal to 5% of their body weight from the baseline, compared to 20.3% in the placebo group.

Average weight loss of 5.8% of body weight, or 12.7 pounds, was achieved in the Lorcaserin group, compared to 2.2% of body weight, or 4.7 pounds, in the placebo group.

The study said 22.6% of Lorcaserin patients lost greater than or equal to 10% of their body weight from the baseline, compared to 7.7% in the placebo group.

There is just one problem with these results in the “That’s it?” thesis.  Going to a weight management seminar even once per month and using an exercise regimen at a gym should be able to do better than this.  Unless someone is too fat to exercise or too out of shape to exercise, then there are no real side effects compared to any drug.

Shares are getting hit by 30% at $3.17 right before the open.  The 52-week range is $2.70 to $7.42.

In the world of obesity treatment via drugs, the world is looking for that major weight-loss pill rather than an incremental boost from a pill.  Again, the gym and a once a month class could produce better results… assuming the person wants to lose weight and is willing to engage in behavior modification.

JON C. OGG
March 30, 2009

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