The swine flue is apparently more dangerous that the garden variety of flu that has been part of the world health picture for several decades. It is more likely to cause pneumonia and other complications.

Drug companies hate to be left out of treating widespread diseases, so several are racing to get out vaccines for swine flu for release are soon as the beginning of next year.

Two of the largest pharma companies working on treatments are GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Roche. Roche has an advantage now because it markets Tamiflu which is taken when flu symptoms first appear.

The plans by the drug companies to profit from the suffering of large numbers of people are at the core of the industry’s business motivations. That is as old as the pharma business itself. The risk that GSK, Roche, and other drug companies take is the investors will bid up their stocks based on a future swine flu epidemic which may never come.

A flu similar to the one that killed millions of people in 1918 would be tremendously profitable for the manufacturers of vaccines. The swine flu has not shown that it is much of a disease. Outbreaks have been small, and the illness has only caused moderate symptoms.

The swine flu could be an investor bonanza, but the world will have to be taken by storm by the new disease for the drug companies to make big profits.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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