Health and Healthcare

Biotech Earnings Previews: Amgen, Biogen Idec, Gilead, Celgene

Biotech stocks took it on the chin during the sell-off. In fact, biotech stocks may have even led the sell-off of momentum stocks in a reality check. The problem is that after years of strong performance, the sector came under selling pressure that was just too much for most investors to endure. It was a stark reminder that biotech stocks can be widow-makers.

This week marks earnings season for the biotech sector, with the top biotech giants all reporting earnings. 24/7 Wall St. has created previews for the top four biotech earnings reports coming out. We have included estimates from Thomson Reuters, what has happened to the shares from the recent peak (down and back up), and have added color.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is set to report earnings after the close of trading on Tuesday. The consensus estimates are for earnings per share (EPS) of $1.94 (versus $1.96 a year ago) and for 12% revenue growth to $4.76 billion. Amgen offers guidance: next quarter consensus numbers are $2.08 EPS and $4.93 billion. Amgen’s valuation is currently 14.5 times expected 2014 earnings and 13.5 times expected 2015 earnings. Shares are up almost 1% at $118 ahead of earnings, and this was as low as $112 last week and down from a peak of $128.96. Amgen’s consensus analyst price target is $132.05. Amgen had its own days of reimbursement risks in years past — a primer for today.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) also reports earnings after the close of trading on Tuesday. Its consensus estimates are $0.89 EPS (versus $0.48 a year ago), and revenue growth is expected to be up almost 55% to $3.92 billion. Gilead’s next quarter consensus numbers are $1.01 EPS and $4.24 billion in revenues. Gilead’s current valuation is almost 18 times expected 2014 earnings and only about 12 times expected 2015 earnings. Gilead shares were up over 1% at $72.50 ahead of the earnings, up from $66 last week and still down from a peak of $84.88. Its consensus price target is $97.67. Gilead may have been the main culprit for the drug cost debate, impacting the value of all biotechs.

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Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) will report its first-quarter earnings results on Wednesday, April 23, 2014, before the financial markets open. The consensus estimates are $2.56 EPS (versus $1.97 a year earlier) and for 41% revenue growth to $2.00 billion. The consensus estimates for next quarter are $2.71 EPS and for revenue of $2.09 billion. Biogen Idec is valued at 27 times expected 2014 earnings and just under 22 times expected 2015 earnings. This stock was up 2% at $305 ahead of earnings, up from a low of just under $275 last week, as well as down from a peak of almost $360 for its all-time and recent high. Investors may have become at least somewhat concerned that the Biogen Idec franchise is so dependent on MS treatments.

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Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) will host its earnings conference call on Thursday, April 24, 2014, at 9:00 a.m. EST. Its consensus estimates are $1.65 EPS (versus $1.37 a year ago) and for more than 20% revenue growth to $1.77 billion. Next quarter’s consensus estimates for Celgene are $1.76 EPS and $1.85 billion in revenue. Celgene trades at 20 times expected 2014 earnings and 15 times expected 2015 earnings. Celgene shares were up 1.5% at $146 in mid-Tuesday trading ahead of the report. The stock was down at $135 last week, and the prior high is almost $175. Analysts have a consensus price target of $193 for Celgene.

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Keep in mind that reimbursement rates and drug costs have been key issues for this sector. With the public now invested in their neighbor’s health care insurance whether they want to be or not, the debate of this issue over the cost of treatment is likely to grow in the future.

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