Health and Healthcare

Key Analyst Sees Opportunity in Diagnostics Sell-Off

The unexpected reimbursement rate proposals by the Center for Medicaid (CMS) hit the diagnostic sector on Monday. Several firms, including Veracyte Inc. (NASDAQ: VCYT), CareDx Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNA) and Genomic Health Inc. (NASDAQ: GHDX) issued press releases responding to proposed 33% to 79% price reductions for their tests in 2016.

What’s positive is that the CMS is trying to relegate gap-fill pricing standards to private payers. Janney Capital specifically likes Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO), Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A), Veracyte and T2 Biosystems Inc. (NASDAQ: TTOO) in the sell-off.

Gap-fill pricing is being used when no existing tests possess similar technology and methodology. Accordingly, under this scenario, the onus of establishing reimbursement rates falls to the Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC). The decision by the CMS to implement crosswalk pricing departs from MAC determined reimbursement rates to private sector rates.

Janney detailed in its report:

CMS is proposing to reduce reimbursement for Veracyte’s Afirma GEC from $3,200 to $2,151 (~33%). We estimate ~20% of Afirma testing revenue comes from Medicare. Blending the reimbursement reduction with percentage of Medicare represents an approximate headwind of 6-7% for Veracyte’s 2016 revenue estimates. With the majority of Afirma revenue coming from private payers reimbursing at a higher price point than Medicare, we believe Veracyte is well positioned. We maintain our fair value estimate for Veracyte of $11 per share, which assumes a 4.4x on fiscal 2017 revenue.

ALSO READ: Argus Sees 3 Top Health and Biotech Stocks as Oversold

Genomic Health also noted the confusion around the unexpected decision by the CMS to depart from local MACs determining reimbursement rates. Genomic Health’s Oncotype DX breast cancer was reduced by 15% and the Oncotype DX colon cancer was reduced by 79%.

Separately Janney also said in the report:

T2 Biosystem’s (BUY; FV $25) success is based on hospital purchase decisions, not the CMS. The proposed legislation specifically excludes hospital labs from submitting volume and pricing. We view its inclusion in Monday’s selloff as a buying opportunity. Thermo Fisher (BUY; FV $157) and Agilent (BUY; FV $46) are operating in more mature DGx markets in which novel test pricing will have low impact.

Shares of Veracyte were down 3.5% to $5.32 on Tuesday morning. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $12.14 and a 52-week trading range of $5.16 to $12.47.

Thermo Fisher shares were up 1.7%, at $120.13 in its 52-week trading range of $107.33 to $141.25. The stock has a consensus price target of $153.81.

Shares of Agilent were up 1.2% to $33.78. The consensus analyst price target is $45.32, and the 52-week range is $33.25 to $43.59.

T2 shares were up 0.3%, at $9.29 in its 52-week range of $9.00 to $24.04. The consensus price target is $19.67.

Shares of Genomic Health were up 6.8%, at $22.86 in its 52-week range of $20.35 to $37.74. The consensus price target is $30.45.

CareDX shares were down 3%, at $3.98 in its 52-week range of $3.70 to $8.00. The consensus price target is $10.20.

ALSO READ: 3 Top Jefferies Biotech Picks to Buy on Recent Sector Weakness

The #1 Thing to Do Before You Claim Social Security (Sponsor)

Choosing the right (or wrong) time to claim Social Security can dramatically change your retirement. So, before making one of the biggest decisions of your financial life, it’s a smart idea to get an extra set of eyes on your complete financial situation.

A financial advisor can help you decide the right Social Security option for you and your family. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you.

Click here to match with up to 3 financial pros who would be excited to help you optimize your Social Security outcomes.

 

Have questions about retirement or personal finance? Email us at [email protected]!

By emailing your questions to 24/7 Wall St., you agree to have them published anonymously on a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

By submitting your story, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.