Will Hurricane Irene cost the United States $10 billion? $15 billion? Or even more?  It really depends upon whom you speak with on this front.  The expected damage count is growing now that the hurricane path looks far more definite since it is closer and closer to landfall.  One thing is almost certain… The damage is expected to be big and it is going to hit areas of the country which usually are not as badly affected by summer weather.  This will be one weekend to remember on the Eastern Seaboard.  We have pulled some economic data and put together some of the likely winners and losers as far as companies are concerned from this storm and its aftermath.

UBS has issued a brief report that hurricanes tend to have little impact on GDP and on Federal Reserve policy, but one notion that they do influence is employment.  The observation is that companies in hurricane areas tend to push out their new hiring decisions by about a month.

We wanted to take a look at just some of the companies in each sector that would win and lose from the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  You can imagine that insurance companies are going to be hit by damage claims, but what about power, water, and telecom?  And imagine the construction and rebuilding business.  And the building supplies and service providers.

Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) have exposure in the areas around North Carolina.  That is where the landfall is expected first.  Perhaps more worrisome is the upper Eastern Seaboard where Hurricane Irene is expected to strafe this weekend. The Chubb Corporation (NYSE: CB) has exposure in New York and on north throughout southern New England, as does Allstate and Travelers.  Chubb noted on its site, “Hurricane Irene Alert: Chubb is helping its customers prepare for the storm.”  Allstate also has a claim and preparedness site.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is also likely not immune as Mr. Buffett has joked in the past that he was lucky enough to avoid hurricanes for two straight years.

Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK) spoke on CNBC this morning saying that while they do expect damage that they have their staff ready to go to assist in the region.  Power lines and power equipments tend to not do well in floods, 100 mile an hour wind, lightning, and with flying debris.  Dominion Resources Inc. (NYSE: D) saw a brief outage at a nuclear plant this week due to the earthquake, but it has already said that its Virginia and North Caroline units are preparing for the aftermath.  Entergy Corporation (NYSE: ETR) has the often controversial Indian Point nuclear power plant located about 35 miles the middle of Manhattan.

This could have an impact on American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) as well, even though this company is very diversified throughout parts of America.  The New Jersey based water utility has operations at risk in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is also diversified all over the United States, particularly on wireless.   That being said, it has real land line and phone line exposure throughout much of the projected areas in New York and the Northeast as the former Bell Atlantic.

There are some beneficiaries of the damage.  We do not like to dwell too much on this aspect outside of it being a responsibility, but there will be some obvious winners.  

For starters, Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) have for the most part not had a summer or fall boost for three years from hurricanes.  There are many homes that are going to need repairs.

When it comes to buildings and other infrastructure projects that will suffer damage, United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) stands to benefit from a wave of machines and structures that will be needed by construction companies repairing infrastructure and buildings.  In fact, there could easily be a shortage of rental equipment all of a sudden.  PPG Industries Inc. (NYSE: PPG) is set to likely win from new glass window orders from residence and from buildings, as well as its coatings and chemicals.

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. (NASDAQ: BECN) has had no help from the housing market but shares have risen all week.  Making roof tiles, shingles, vinyl siding, window fixtures and more is all set to win.  Interline Brands Inc. (NYSE: IBI) also markets and distributes maintenance, repair, and operating products to workers.  Briggs & Stratton Corporation (NYSE: BGG) is a leader in power generators for back-up.  Another ower generator back-up player for home and business is Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE: GNRC)

Crawford & Company (NYSE: CRD-B) is often too thin to count, but a near-40% gain this week says it all.  The company wins from hurricanes and natural disasters as it provides claims management solutions to insurance companies and self-insured entities.

Clean Harbors, Inc. (NYSE: CLH) is also one beneficiary of disasters that is often overlooked, but it may take severe damage for it to be called in for any massive new orders.

And from the department of ‘ok sure’….

The NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) and NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) have both promised that they will be up and operational for trading in normal hours on Monday.  This may seem impossible, but that is likely due to back-up electronic facility sites not in downtown Manhattan.

There are certainly more winners and losers from the storm.  To claim to be a winner might not be politically correct when you consider the outright destruction and the likely loss of life, but there are obviously going to be many losers as a result of this hurricane.

Here were the photos from inside the 610 Loop that I took less than an hour after Hurricane Ike hit Houston in September 2008.

JON C. OGG

Below is a larger graphic of the projected storm path from NOAA:

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