Case-Shiller Report... Housing Pain Remains (KBH, DHI, TOL, LEN, PHM)

The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the month of October were released this morning, and the results failed to meet already low expectation. The annual decline in home prices in the 10- and 20- metropolitan regions measured by the indices fell -3.0% and -3.4%, respectively. A median forecast had predicted a drop of -3.2% in the 20-city index. For just the month of October, home prices fell in both indices by more than -1% compared with September prices.

Recent earnings and forecasts from builders like KB Home (NYSE: KBH), D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), and PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM) have been mixed, but the trend has been slightly positive for the first time in many quarters.

In the 20-city Case-Shiller index, the one-year decline in Atlanta was worst, at -11.7%, followed by Las Vegas at -8.5% and Minneapolis at -8.4%. The two cities posting one year price gains in October were Detroit, up 2.5%, and Washington, D.C., up 1.3%.

Only one city, Phoenix, posted a month-over-month gain in October, and that gain was a mere 0.3%. The largest decline month-over-month came in Atlanta, at -5%, with Detroit falling -3.3% in the month.

The Case-Shiller indices indicate a couple of things. First, the impact of foreclosed properties still weighs on home prices. And as more foreclosed properties hit the market now that lenders are ending their self-imposed moratorium on foreclosures, more pressure is expected on home prices.

Second, the recent good news on new orders and inventory levels from home builders could be more transient than many had hoped. Even the expected improvements in homebuilding were slight, and remained near recent lows.

Home prices have returned to their level in mid-2003, and the 20-city recovery from its most recent low in March 2011 is up 1.9%. That’s barely better than nothing.

Paul Ausick