The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Monday morning released its data on pending sales of existing homes in March. The pending home sales index rose 3.4% from an upwardly revised index reading of 94.2 in February to the March reading of 97.4. That is 7.9% lower than in March 2013 when the index reading was 105.7. The consensus estimate called for a month-over-month decrease of 0.6% in pending sales. The index reflects signed contracts, not sales closings. An index reading of 100 equals the average level of contract signings during 2001.

NAR lowered its estimate for total existing home sales in 2014 to 4.9 million, below the 2013 total of 5.1 million and down 100,000 from last month’s NAR estimate. National median home prices are forecast to rise by about 6% to 7% this year, unless existing-home inventory levels need to increase to help keep prices in check. The price forecast also rose in March.

The NAR’s chief economist noted:

After a dismal winter, more buyers got an opportunity to look at homes last month and are beginning to make contract offers. Sales activity is expected to steadily pick up as more inventory reaches the market, and from ongoing job creation in the economy.

Pending home sales in the Northeast U.S. increased 1.4% in March, posting an index reading of 78.8, down 5.9% from March 2013. The index slipped 0.8% in the Midwest and remains 10.1% below last year’s reading. Sales rose 5.6% in the South and 5.7% in the West. Compared with March 2013, sales are down in all regions.

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