Housing

Home Prices Slip in Chicago, Cleveland, Washington: Case-Shiller September Index

Paul Ausick

Published: November 24, 2015 10:57 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 4:48 pm

In all 20 U.S. cities included in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, September house prices increased year-over-year and 17 of 20 posted a month-over-month increase, with Chicago (down 0.4%), Cleveland (down 0.1%), and Washington, D.C. (down 0.1%) posting price declines compared with August. The cities posting the largest year-over-year gains were San Francisco (up 11.2%), Denver (up 10.9%), and Portland (up 10.1%).

The smallest month-over-month increases were posted in Charlotte and Detroit (both flat), and Atlanta, Boston, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, and New York — all up 0.1%

The smallest year-over-year gains came in Chicago (up 1.1%), Washington, D.C. (up 2.1%), and New York (up 2.7%). Month-over-month, Miami posted a 0.9% gain, Portland posted a 0.8% gain, and both San Francisco and San Diego prices rose 0.6%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September increased by 5.5% year-over-year for the 20-city composite index and by 5% for the 10-city composite index. The national index rose 4.9% year-over-year, up from an increase of 4.7% in August. The consensus estimate for the year-over-year 20-city index called for growth of 5.3%.

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Month-over-month, the 20-city index rose 0.2%, as did both the 10-city and national indexes. On a seasonally adjusted basis the 10-city and 20-city indexes rose 0.6% from August to September. All 20 cities reported increases in July after seasonal adjustment.

The index tracks prices on a three-month rolling average. September represents the three-month average of July, August, and September prices.

Average home prices for September remain comparable to their levels in the winter of 2007.

The chairman of the S&P index committee said:

Home prices and housing continue to show strength with home prices rising at more than double the rate of inflation. The general economy appeared to slow slightly earlier in the fall, but is now showing renewed strength. With unemployment at 5% and hints of higher inflation in the CPI, most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise its Fed Funds target range to 25 to 50 basis points, the first increase since 2006. While this will make news, it is not likely to push mortgage rates far above the recent level of 4% on 30 year conventional loans. In the last year, mortgage rates have moved in a narrow range as home prices have risen; it will take much more from the Fed to slow home price gains.

Compared with their peak in the summer of 2006, home prices on both 10- and 20-city indexes remain down about 11% to 13%. Since the low of March 2012, home prices are up 35.1% and 36.4% on the 10- and 20-city indexes, respectively.