Housing

Home Prices Slide Most in Chicago, Boston, New York According to Case-Shiller November Index

Paul Ausick

Published: January 26, 2016 10:25 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 2:35 pm

In all 20 U.S. cities included in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, November house prices increased year over year, and 15 of the 20 posted a month-over-month increase. Portland was up 11.1%, San Francisco up 11.0% and Denver up 10.9%. Chicago was down 0.7%, Boston down 0.5% and Atlanta and New York City each down 0.3%, the largest price declines compared with October.

The other city posting a month-over-month price decline was Las Vegas (down 0.1%). Prices were unchanged in Cleveland.

The smallest year-over-year gains came in Chicago (up 2%), Washington, D.C., (2.1%) and Cleveland (2.2%). Month over month, Denver, Detroit, Minneapolis and Washington posted a gain of just 0.1%, the smallest among the 20 cities in the index.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for November increased by 5.8% year over year for the 20-city composite index and by 5.3% for the 10-city composite index. The national index rose 5.3% year over year, up from an increase of 5.2% in October. The consensus estimate for the year-over-year 20-city index called for growth of 5.7%.

Month over month, the 20-city index rose 0.1%, as did the national index. The 10-city index was flat month over month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 10-city and 20-city indexes rose 0.9% from October to November. All 20 cities reported increases in November after seasonal adjustment.
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The index tracks prices on a three-month rolling average. November represents the three-month average of September, October and November prices.

Average home prices for November remain comparable to their levels in the winter of 2007.

The chairman of the S&P index committee said:

Home prices extended their gains, supported by continued low mortgage rates, tight supplies and an improving labor market. Sales of existing homes were up 6.5% in 2015 vs. 2014, and the number of homes on the market averaged about a 4.8 months’ supply during the year; both numbers suggest a seller’s market. The consumer portion of the economy is doing well; like housing, automobile sales were quite strong last year. Other parts of the economy are not faring as well. Businesses in the oil and energy sectors are suffering from the 75% drop in oil prices in the last 18 months. Moreover, the strong U.S. dollar is slowing exports. Housing is not large enough to offset all of these weak spots

Home prices continue to recover from the collapse that began before the recession of 2007-2009 and continued until 2012. Three cities – Dallas, Denver and Portland OR – have reached new all-time highs; San Francisco is even with its earlier peak and Charlotte NC is less than one percent below its previous peak. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is about 4.8% below the peak it set in July 2006, and 29.2% above the bottom it touched in January 2012. By comparison, the S&P 500 as of Friday, January 22nd is up 46% from January 2012 – better than the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price series and about the same as Los Angeles.

Compared with their peak in the summer of 2006, home prices on both 10-city and 20-city indexes remain down about 11% to 13%. Since the low of March 2012, home prices are up 34.9% and 36.4% on the 10-city and 20-city indexes, respectively.