April Home Prices Rise 5.4% Led by Portland, Seattle, and Denver

In all 20 U.S. cities included in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, April house prices increased year-over-year and all 20 also posted a month-over-month increase. Portland (up 12.3%), Seattle (up 10.7%), and Denver (up 9.5%) posted the largest year-over-year gains. Seattle (up 2.1%) and Chicago (up 2%) posted the largest month-over-month price increases compared with March.

April prices were up 0.3% in New York, up 0.6% in Las Vegas, and up 0.7% in Phoenix, the cities posting the smallest gains month over month.

The smallest year-over-year gains came in Washington, D.C. (up 1.9%), New York(up 2.6%), and Cleveland (up 2.9%).

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for April increased by 5.4% year-over-year for the 20-city composite index and by 4.7% for the 10-city composite index. The national index fell to 5% year-over-year, down from 5.1% in March.

The index tracks prices on a three-month rolling average. April represents the three-month average of February, March, and April prices.

Before seasonal adjustment, the month-over-month National Index, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite posted gains of 1%, 1%, and 1.1%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the month-over-month gains were 0.1% on the National Index, 0.3% on the 10-city index, and 0.5% on the 20-city index.

Average home prices for April remain comparable to their levels in the winter of 2007.

The chairman of the S&P index committee said:

The housing sector continues to turn in a strong price performance with the S&P/Case-Shiller National Index rising at a 5% or greater annual rate for six consecutive months. The home price increases reflect the low unemployment rate, low mortgage interest rates, and consumers’ generally positive outlook. One result is that an increasing number of cities have surpassed the high prices seen before the Great Recession. Currently, seven cities – Denver, Dallas, Portland OR, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, and Boston – are setting new highs.

However, the outlook is not without a lot of uncertainty and some risk. Last week’s vote by Great Britain to leave the European Union is the most recent political concern while the U.S. elections in the fall raise uncertainty and will distract home buyers and investors in the coming months. The details in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price data also hint at possible softness. Seasonally adjusted figures in the report show that three cities saw lower prices in April compared to only one city in March. Among the 20 cities, 16 saw either declines or smaller increases in monthly prices in the seasonally adjusted numbers.

Compared with their peak in the summer of 2006, home prices on both 10- and 20-City indexes remain down about 10.7% to 12.7%. Since the low of March 2012, home prices are up 37.7% and 39.2% on the 10- and 20-city indexes, respectively.