November Existing Home Sales Continue Strong

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales in November rose 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million from a downwardly revised total of 5.57 million in October.

The consensus estimate called for sales to reach 5.535 million, according to a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg. Sales are at their highest level since February 2007 (5.79 million) and up 15.4% over November 2015.

The NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said:

The healthiest job market since the Great Recession and the anticipation of some buyers to close on a home before mortgage rates accurately rose from their historically low level have combined to drive sales higher in recent months. Furthermore, it’s no coincidence that home shoppers in the Northeast — where price growth has been tame all year — had the most success last month.

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There are headwinds, however, according to Yun:

Existing housing supply at the beginning of the year was inadequate and is now even worse heading into 2017. Rental units are also seeing this shortage. As a result, both home prices and rents continue to far outstrip incomes in much of the country.

Housing inventory decreased by 8% in November to 1.85 million homes, equal to a supply of just four months. Inventory has declined year over year for 18 consecutive months and is currently down 9.3% year over year from 2.04 million in November 2015.

According to the NAR, the national median existing home price for all housing types in November was $234,900, up 6.8% compared with November 2015, the 57th consecutive month of rising home prices. In September the national median price was $232,200.

The percentage of first-time buyers slipped by a point month over month to 32% in November, but up from 30% in November 2015. Yun commented on the increase:

First-time buyers in higher priced cities will be most affected by rising prices and mortgage rates next year and will likely have to stretch their budget or make compromises on home size, price or location

Sales of single-family homes fell 0.4% from the October total to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.95 million and is up 16.2% compared with November 2015. Sales of multifamily homes rose 10% in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 units.

All homes were on the market for an average of 43 days in November, up from 41 in October and down from 54 in November 2015. Foreclosed and non-distressed homes were on the market for an average of 55 and 39 days, respectively, and short sales took a median of 110 days to sell.

The NAR also reported the following regional data:

• November existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 8% year over year to an annual rate of 810,000, up 15.7% compared with November 2015. The median price in the Northeast was $263,000, up 3.3% compared with last November.
• In the Midwest, existing-home sales decreased by 2.2% to an annual rate of 1.33 million in November and are now 18.8% higher than November 2015 sales. The median price in the Midwest was $180,300, up 6.5% from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the South rose 1.4% in November to an annual rate of 2.22 million, and they are 11.6% higher than November 2015 sales. The median price in the South was $206,900, up 9.2% from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the West dropped 1.6% to an annual rate of 1.25 million in November and have moved 19% higher than in November 2015. The median price in the West was $345,400, up 8.5% compared with the November 2015 median.

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