Holiday Smartphone Surprise: Samsung Sales Running Next To Apple (AAPL, SSNLF, GOOG, NOK, RIMM, MSFT)

Smartphone makers are expected to sell some 142 million units in the current calendar quarter. The bulk of those sales are pumping up the revenues at two vendors — Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Samsung Electronics (OTC: SSNLF), which uses the Android operating system from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). The two companies are tagged to sell about 28 million units each, with Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) sales estimated at 19 million units. Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is expected to sell 14 million units and HTC Corp. is expected to sell 11 million.

The sales estimates come from a survey of analysts conducted by Reuters, which cited one analyst’s comment that pretty much says it all:

It’s really only the iPhone family and the (Samsung) Galaxy family flying off the shelves. Everyone else is just picking up the leftovers.

Nokia’s forecast sales are more than 30% below the company’s sales in the same period a year ago. The company has released its first phone using the Windows Phone 7 operating system from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), but the company continues to rely for sales on the Symbian-powered phones that are not just yesterday’s technology, but last year’s technology.

In its earnings release yesterday, RIM estimated sales of 11-12 million units in the current quarter, substantially below the Reuters survey’s estimate. The worse news is that the company’s new operating system, QNX, is being delayed until late in 2012. QNX was originally scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of next year.

Unlike Apple, Samsung, HTC, and even Nokia, RIM’s new operating system is untried in a smartphone and the product’s initial release as ‘BB10’ for the company’s PlayBook tablet was a resounding failure. By late next year, the new operating system could very well be yesterday’s news — or worse.

If the holiday season turns out as successfully as the Reuters survey suggests, then Apple and Samsung will get a lucrative visit from Santa. Nokia, RIM, and HTC won’t exactly be getting coal, but investors will surely believe that they should have done better.

Paul Ausick