Industrials

Analyst Shows Why GE Likely to Keep Raising Its Dividend

When General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) reported its fourth-quarter earnings, the conglomerate gave a little bit for the bulls and a little bit for the bears. We are starting to see analysts update their 2015 guidance and expectations. As we have said before, the GE you will see by the end of 2015 will be a very different GE than your parents knew. Now we have an analyst report from Argus signaling that not only is GE still a Buy, but the firm sees GE raising its dividend even further.

24/7 Wall St. recently issued its own bullish and bearish evaluation of GE for 2015.

General Electric was reiterated as a Buy at Argus, and the firm kept its $31 price target. For a comparison, GE’s highest price target is $32 and the consensus price target is $28.77. Again, we now have our first analyst report identifying what the expected dividend hikes will be for 2015 and 2016. Also keep in mind that GE’s common stock dividend already yields 3.75%. That currently ranks GE as the fifth highest dividend yield of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks.

Argus maintains that GE’s relative price weakness brings a buying opportunity. The firm sees GE in the process of reducing its risk profile by lowering its exposure to the financial services industry. Also, GE shares have underperformed the market over the past quarter by falling 5% at a time that the S&P 500 has risen 6%. Another positive take was on GE’s order backlog being reported as a record $261 billion (up $17 billion from the end of 2013).

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GE’s $31 price target is based on a multiple of 17.5 times the Argus 2015 earnings per share estimate. With the recently raised dividend, GE’s expected return for shareholders is now being pegged at about 30%.

On the dividend front, Argus sees GE keeping the 2015 dividend $0.92 after the December raise a month ago. The firm is modeling that GE will raise its dividend late this year so that the 2016 payout will be $0.98 per share next year. For investors buying now, the yield is 3.75%, and the implied yield for next year, based on a $24.48 closing price on Friday, would be 4.0%.

Additional bullet points of the earnings report and for a 2016 outlook were as follows:

  • GE reported a 6% gain in fourth-quarter earnings of $0.56 per share, versus a $0.55 consensus estimate, and revenue grew 4% to $42 billion.
  • For 2014, GE reported $1.65 EPS, up 1% from 2013, and revenue grew 2% in 2014 to $148.6 billion.
  • GE said there were no changes to the recent projection of 2015 industrial EPS of $1.10 to $1.20 and EPS from GE Capital of $0.60 — with a total earnings of $1.70 to $1.80 EPS and segment organic growth of 2% to 5%.
  • GE expects 75% of corporate earnings to come from its industrial business and 25% from GE Capital.
  • GE has shifted from a revenue-growth to a cost-containment strategy over the past few years.
  • GE is benefiting from strong new order trends with that massive backlog.
  • Improving power generation activity has fueled demand for turbines and other oil and gas equipment.
  • An upswing in the commercial aviation market is flowing through to GE Aviation’s order book.
  • GE Capital has shed its more volatile retail lending business and pared down its real estate portfolio.
  • Argus sees a higher-margin backlog, solid execution in the industrial businesses, and a healthier GE Capital.

ALSO READ: The Bullish and Bearish Case for GE in 2015

GE’s tone changed a bit toward its Oil & Gas segment to a more cautious and conservative outlook. Immelt said in December that he was confident about GE’s competitive position in this business and that he assumed oil prices of $60 to $65 per barrel in 2015. Unfortunately for GE and companies in the oil patch, oil prices have since fallen further. GE’s new outlook is said to have reduced employment in GE’s Oil & Gas business, along with a restructuring and simplification to reduce its cost structure. On the Oil & Gas segment, Argus said:

Given current energy market volatility, we will be closely watching GE’s energy businesses this year. In the fourth quarter, Oil & Gas revenues fell 6% to $5 billion, reflecting a 300-basis-point currency headwind and a negative 300-basis-point disposition impact. Management notes that 2015 will be challenging for the Oil & Gas business, and is planning to lower costs in response. The Oil & Gas business accounts for about 15% of GE’s industrial earnings.

GE closed at $24.48 on Friday on the heels of its earnings report, and shares opened up about 0.7% at $24.72 on Monday. Its 52-week trading range is $23.41 to $27.53.

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