Caterpillar Q1 Estimates Far Below Consensus

In a filing Thursday morning with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) said that its first-quarter earnings and revenues will fall well short of current consensus estimates of earnings per share (EPS) of $0.97 and revenues of $10.36 billion.

The heavy equipment maker said adjusted EPS will fall in a range of $0.65 to $0.70. On a GAAP basis, EPS is pegged at $0.50 to $0.55. Revenues are forecast in a range of $9.3 billion to $9.4 billion.

The company also said it was “comfortable” with its current full-year guidance that calls for revenues of $40 to $44 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.00.

In a presentation due to be delivered Thursday at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Industrials Conference, full-year sales are seen down in each of its three divisions, with Construction Industries revenues off 5% to 10%, Energy & Transportation down 10% to 15% and Resource Industries revenues off 15% to 20%. Caterpillar attributes the drop to macroeconomic headwinds: an uncertain global economy, especially in China and Brazil; continued weak demand for construction equipment; poor demand in the oil and gas sector; low commodity prices in the mining business; and a strong dollar.
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The midpoint of the full-year revenue estimate, $42 billion, is nearly 11% below the 2015 total of $47 billion and about 25% below 2014 revenues. First-quarter revenues also have been slipping, from $13.2 billion in 2014 to $12.7 billion in 2015, and down to this year’s projection of $9.3 billion to $9.4 billion.

It’s a little difficult to see how a year-over-year revenue decline of 26% in the first quarter can be made up over the next three quarters. Average quarterly revenue fell by $2 billion year over year between 2014 and 2015. And now the company expects to reverse that?

Caterpillar offered six execution elements as its focus for the year:

• Decremental pull-through
• Machine market position
• Focus on growth
• Quality
• Safety
• Capital returned to shareholders

Caterpillar, one of the Dogs of the Dow, boasts a dividend yield of 4.23% as of Wednesday’s close, and the company appears to be committed to its $3.08 annual dividend. That commitment is likely to soften the blow of the new guidance.

Shares closed at $74.34 on Wednesday, up 2.6%, in a 52-week range of $56.36 to $89.62. In Thursday’s premarket shares traded down about 2.5% at $72.50. The consensus price target on the stock is $60.50.