Industrials

After the Fall: 3M Facing More Struggles With Eyes on 2021

Wolterk / iStock

It’s a tough bet to remain a conglomerate these days. Almost all of the large conglomerates have experienced some issues in recent years, but Wall Street and Main Street alike were not used to 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) being in trouble. A poor earnings report has derailed any hopes that the investing community will be eager to jump into this stock until more answers become apparent. A drop of more than 5% on a day where the Dow recovered almost 200 points and when the S&P 500 rose 1% is not exactly a vote of confidence.

3M was on a great trajectory until the start of 2018. Since that time the company has managed to upset its investors far more than it has rewarded them. No one even seems to care that 3M is a serial dividend hiker. When it raised its payout in February of 2019, the conglomerate confirmed that 3M had increased its dividend for some 61 consecutive years — and that the company had paid its shareholders a dividend without any interruption for over 100 years. That’s going above and beyond being a Dividend Aristocrat.

Along with Tuesday’s disappointing earnings, 3M entered the corporate confessional noting that North American demand was weak and that the company was going to lay off around 1,500 more workers with weakness throughout 3M’s. CEO Mike Roman said that 3M continued to face challenges and the company’s revenues were down 2.6% outside of currency adjustments. What was interesting is that 3M was supposed to be showing lots of job openings and this just adds that much more fuel to the 3M fire.

The end of the year (and then some) trade tensions was supposed to help companies like 3M as China comes back on line. But the recent coronavirus had a very poorly coincidental time on that front. Still, China and Hong Kong total sales rose 0.8% in the last quarter and the company is ramping up production of its facial masks to help people avoid the coronavirus.

Safety and industrial sales were down about 5% and transportation and electronics related sales were down over 6%. The recent acquisition of Acelity allowed for a small net revenue growth versus the prior year, but the profit of $969 million was down from more than $1.3 billion a year earlier and earnings of $1.95 per share were about 15-cents shy of the consensus estimate.

Where things are difficult to look is into 2020’s guidance, where 3M issued guidance of $9.30 to $9.75 per share. The consensus was closer to $9.60, and that put the pre-earnings valuation closer to 18 times earnings. That is not expensive in this market, but it’s not dirt cheap for a company that has developed a reputation for disappointing on estimates.

3M had been facing margin pressures for a while and the company recently was in an environmental case that its shareholders are frankly not used to dealing with. CEO Mike Roman took over as 3M’s CEO in July of 2018 and he became 3M’s Chairman of the Board in May 2019.

3M shares closed down $10.05, or 5.7%, at $165.58 on Tuesday. Investors had been buying the shares during late 2019 in hopes that its turnaround would become more clear, but this close now takes it back to a low not seen since the $164.37 close on December 5, 2019. Its highest closing price was $181.37 in January.

This was more than a $250 stock at the very start of 2018. Analysts on Wall Street have already been more cautious than optimistic here for some time. Now it seems they are going to have to tell current and prospective investors that two years of patience has not been long enough. This is a story where a value stock may look like value because of its share price but not with good fundamentals.

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