Caterpillar Sales Data Look Like Crater-Pillar (CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) reported some absolutely atrocious numbers for its January orders on deliveries for its machinery and engines lines of business.  This equipment is mostly sold through independent dealers and OEM’s.  Caterpillar’s independent dealers reports are unaudited and are not subject to Caterpillar’s own internal controls, but they will not inspire much confidence in investors eager for signs the economy is improving.  It is no surprise that the stock is barely above a recent low.

This data is calculated in constant dollars, so it smooths out the currency fluctuations.  If you look at the rolling 3-month data, it only shows you just how much the slowdown is actually a screaming halt compared to the orders from the same period of the prior year.  Oddly enough, North America is the worst region, and Latin America is the only area still showing at least some growth.

JAN-2009     DEC-2008    NOV-2008
Asia/Pacific      DOWN 15%    DOWN 13%    UP 5%
EU/M.E./Afr.   DOWN 27%    DOWN 20%   DOWN 15%
Latin America  UP 4%              UP 11%           UP 18%
Rest of World   DOWN 17%    DOWN 12%    DOWN 3%
N. America       DOWN 30%    DOWN 21%    DOWN 11%
World                  DOWN 22%    DOWN 15%    DOWN 6%

Here is the data over the Reciprocating & Turbine Engines to Retail Users and OEM’s by business sector.  At least some of these are positive, but the truck and bus side looks like the worst drag in the group.
JAN-2009    DEC-2008    NOV-2008
Truck & Bus        DOWN 55%    DOWN 30%  DOWN 8%
Electric Power    UP 1%             UP 3%            UP 15%
Industrial            DOWN 19%    DOWN 7%    DOWN 2%
Marine                   UP 13%           UP 35%         UP 28%
Petroleum            UP 16%           UP 13%         DOWN 1%
Total                       UP 1%              UP 6%            UP 8%

The good news is that the market either hasn’t seen the data inside this filing or it just doesn’t care.  Caterpillar shares are up 0.5% at $28.60 this morning after the open.  Its 52-week trading range is $27.77 to $85.96.

Jon C. Ogg
February 19, 2009