Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) has already issued lower guidance for the year ahead and its shares actually have risen since its last earnings disappointment. Now we have confirmation that the company’s current quarter is not off to a great start. This is a story where “less bad may be good” for investors.

The industrial equipment maker has released its monthly dealer statistics. On a standalone basis the numbers look horrible. When you look at how they compare to prior reports, that is where the less bad comes into play. Global retail machine sales fell by 9% in April on a year-over-year basis. While that is soft, March was -11% and February was -13%.

The figures are lower but less bad elsewhere for its retail sales of machines in April (year-over-year) shown in the SEC filing. Asia/Pacific fell by 20%, but that was -24% in March and -26% in February. Latin America rose by 28%, versus a gain of 12% in March and a gain of 3% in February. North America sales were a disappointment as the sales were down by 18% in April, wider than the -11% in March and -12% in February. The EMEA (Europe, Africa and Middle East) region was down by only 3%, versus -8% in March and -9% in February.

We have also seen the by unit sales reported globally on a constant dollar basis from dealers and direct sales. Electric power sales fell 11%, versus -17% and -8% in the two months before. Industrial fell 7%, versus -24% and -25% in the two prior months. Transportation rose by 8%, but this had been up 19% the prior month and up 15% two months ago. Petroleum segment sales were down by 6% in April, worse than down 1% in March but not as bad as -8% in February.

Caterpillar shares have been all over the place this morning, and the real direction of the day has not yet been decided. After closing at $87.67 on Friday, the stock was as high as $87.90 after the open, and shares are currently down $0.22 at $87.45. This stock has traded in a 52-week range of $78.25 to $99.70, and the current consensus analyst target price from Thomson Reuters is $96.95. As you can see below, the stockcharts.com chart shows that Caterpillar shares are in a bit of a chart fight, as the 50-day moving average is $85.85 and the 200-day moving average is $87.45.

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