Infrastructure
Have Duke Energy and Consolidated Edison Become the Perfect Stocks?
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During periods of selling and volatility, investors tend to get nervous. When investors get nervous they tend to avoid volatile stocks. So what happens when you have three triple-digit drops in a row on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and a 1,000 point DJIA correction in three weeks — and you find two stocks that have hit 52-week highs? That is the dilemma of Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) and Consolidated Edison Inc. (NYSE: ED). What stands out more than rallying in a bad market is that these stocks also rallied on Tuesday, when markets were trying to recover.
24/7 Wall St. featured both Duke and Consolidated Edison in its own 10 safest high-yield dividends just a week ago. While that call was fortuitous, the reality is that the stocks could have easily just sold off with the market as some of the other utilities did.
So, what is driving the interest here in these two utilities?
Consolidated Edison has now hit above $61, which means it is trading just over $3 above its consensus analyst price target. It still has a better than average 4.3% dividend yield, and a dividend that will slowly rise ahead, but we would point out that the current high analyst price target is up at $63. This means that either the stock needs a breather or needs the analysts to catch up. Or does it?
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Consolidated Edison trades at 15.6 times expected 2015 earnings. It also trades at roughly eight times its enterprise value/EBITDA as well. If you include the dividends, Consolidated Edison shares were up 13% as of Tuesday morning. Investors must be betting that the earnings gains will lead to upside adjustments, which may not yet be modeled in by analysts covering this key utility around New York City.
Duke Energy has now hit $78.85, about $2.25 above the consensus analyst price target from Thomson Reuters. Its dividend yield has drifted lower to about 4.1% now that shares have risen, and that dividend is one we also expect will rise ahead. Its solid earnings report supports that, and it seems that investors are hoping for the same as it keeps getting its assets and operations focused where it wants to be. What stands out in Duke over Consolidated Edison is that the highest analyst price target comes with better upside, as it is up at $84.
Duke trades at about 16.4 times expected 2015 earnings, but has a much higher enterprise value/EBITDA ratio of 10.4. Still, Duke shares were up 18% so far in 2014 as of Tuesday morning. Investors are obviously betting on a continued turnaround and redirection that will drive earnings (and the dividend) higher than expected.
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What investors need to consider here is that both stocks have risen handily in 2014 to new highs, and they have done so in what has started turning into a bad stock market. Investors also should consider that their valuations are reaching rich levels and both are trading higher than what analysts think they are worth. That being said, blindly jumping in may end up being that painful game of only chasing yesterday’s winners.
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