Infrastructure
Utilities Catch Downgrades as Recession Realities and Dividend Risks Set In
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Just 30 to 60 days ago, the utilities sector was about as strong as iron. Then the coronavirus pandemic suddenly delivered a recession. Millions and millions of Americans, and businesses small and large, were suddenly either without income or at risk of having no income. This was unprecedented, and the mighty utility industry found itself in a position where a large portion of the customers either cannot pay or will be seeking assistance to pay for their utilities. This is a potentially significant risk to future earnings, and that means there is even an unthinkable scenario in which many of their dividends could actually be at risk.
Perhaps the good news is that with a government rescue package for citizens and for businesses, maybe things won’t get as bad as some had hoped. The bad news is that utilities’ earnings and revenues are going to be pressured for some time. Many have pledged that they will not cut off customers who cannot pay for their services. Some even went as far as to say that those who had been cut off in prior weeks will have their services restored.
When you add up a scenario of continually high expenses to keep providing services and one in which customers are going to be late paying in future collections, it doesn’t look good for the utilities. This is also at a time when interest rates and gas prices being so low should have helped out. That’s so “bull market thinking” now.
A large sector call from Barclays shows just how much the expectations are coming down for the major utilities in America. Many of those old price targets are unfortunately now simply viewed as a fairy tale. Sadly, the firm had just upgraded some of these stocks in recent weeks. As utilities are now facing more risks, some of these Barclays target price cuts were by more than 20% due to the uncertainty.
We also looked for other large calls on utilities, but many analysts have yet to adjust their target prices. That means more analyst downgrades, or at least more earnings and target price cuts, are likely coming in the days and weeks ahead.
Alliant Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: LNT) was trading up 2% at $45.23 on Thursday, in a 52-week range of $37.66 to $60.28. The former consensus target price is $57.88, and the yield is 3.4%. Barclays maintained it as Overweight and cut the target to $48 from $60.
American Electric Power Co. Inc. (NYSE: AEP) was trading up 6% at $77.68, in a 52-week range of $65.14 to $104.97. The former consensus target price is $101.31 and its yield is 3.8%. AEP was maintained as Overweight at Barclays, but the firm cut its target price to $82 from $107. Both KeyBanc (March 13) and Morgan Stanley (March 10) upgraded it to Overweight, with target prices of $93 and $102, respectively.
Ameren Corp. (NYSE: AEE) was up 5% at $70.75, in a 52-week range of $58.74 to $87.66. The former consensus target price is $89.27, and the yield is 2.9%. Barclays maintained its Equal Weight rating but slashed its target to $65 from $85.
CenterPoint Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNP) was trading up 4.5% at $15.82, in a 52-week range of $11.58 to $31.17. The former consensus target price is $23.70, and the yield is 7.7%. CenterPoint Energy was kept as Equal Weight but its target was cut to $15 from $20 at Barclays.
CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS) traded up 6% at $56.43, in a 52-week range of $46.03 to $69.17. The former consensus target price is $68.60, and the yield is 3.1%. Barclays maintained its Equal Weight rating but cut its target from $67 to $51.
Consolidated Edison Inc. (NYSE: ED) was up 2% at $72.77, in a 52-week range of $62.03 to $95.10. The former consensus target price is $89.27. The yield is 4.3%. Barclays reiterated ConEd as Underweight but cut its target to $64 from $83.
Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) was up over 6% at $79.67, in a 52-week range of $62.13 to $103.79. The former consensus target price is $104.80, and the yield is 5.1%. Duke Energy was maintained as Equal Weight but its target was cut to $79 from $104.
Edison International (NYSE: EIX) traded up 8% at $58.12, in a 52-week range of $43.63 to $78.93. The former consensus target price is $81.08, and the yield is 4.7%. Barclays maintained it as Equal Weight and cut its target to $52 from $68.
Eversource Energy (NYSE: ES) was trading up 5% at $75.15, in a 52-week range of $60.69 to $99.42. The former consensus target price is $93.00, and the yield is 3.2%. The stock was maintained as Equal Weight at Barclays, which cut its target from $96 to $74.
Exelon Corp. (NASDAQ: EXC) was up 3% at $35.69, in a 52-week range of $29.28 to $51.18. The former consensus target price is $54.53, and the yield is 4.4%. Barclays maintained its Overweight rating but cut its target to $39 from $50.
FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE: FE) was up 6% at $37.78, in a 52-week range of $32.00 to $52.52. The former consensus target price is $52.31. The yield is 4.4%. Barclays kept its Overweight rating and cut its target to $42 from $54 on Thursday, but Morgan Stanley had raised its rating to Overweight while cutting its target to $41 from $50 on March 23. On March 16, Argus raised its rating to Buy from Hold with a $44 target price.
NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE) was up nearly 5% at $220.10, in a 52-week range of $174.80 to $283.35. The former consensus target price is $262.19. The yield is 2.7%. NextEra Energy, the first and only utility to ever have reached a $100 billion market cap, was maintained as Equal Weight at Barclays, but the firm cut its target to $220 from $269.
NiSource Inc. (NYSE: NI) traded up nearly 7% at $24.35, in a 52-week range of $19.56 to $30.67. The former consensus target price is $30.25. The yield is 3.7%. Barclays maintained it as Equal Weight but lowered its target to $124 from $152.
OGE Energy Corp. (NYSE: OGE) was trading up 3% at $30.02, in a 52-week range of $23.01 to $46.43. The former consensus target price is $40.67. The yield is 5.7%. Despite maintaining its Equal Weight rating, Barclays slashed its target price to $28 from $38.
PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG) was up 10% at $10.18, with a 52-week range of $3.55 to $25.19. The former consensus target price is $14.50. Of course, PG&E pays no dividend and is effectively now a ward of the State of California. That said, Barclays maintained its Equal Weight rating and slashed its target to $9 from $15.
Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) was up 8% at $123.30, with a 52-week range of $88.00 to $161.87. The former consensus target price is $143.13, and the yield is 3.5%. Barclays maintained it as Overweight while cutting its target price from $152 to $124.
Southern Co. (NYSE: SO) was up 6% at $53.33, in a 52-week range of $41.96 to $71.10. The former consensus target price is $66.64, and the yield is 5.0%. Barclays kept it as Equal Weight but cut its target to $51 from $67.
Remember, no singe analyst call should be used as a basis to buy or sell any stock.
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