Can you hear the noise over the roar of the Dow pushing past 13,000?

love a rally as much as the next guy, who doesn’t? It’s great for the U.S. economy, people say "hi" to each other in New York, and a few more baby boomers enter into early retirement. There has been some great earnings already this season and they start with the letter "A" – Aloca (AA), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL) to name the grand slams. The hits keep coming with Boeing (BA) and today it was weight-loss giant NutriSystem (NTRI). So with so much going well, why even question when the bull run could stop?

Despite the momentum of the economies overseas, which are growing faster than in the United States, we have concerns that are closer to home:
Rising energy costs, a slumping housing market and a possible credit crunch – these are the factors Wall Street seem to be brushing off.

Many quality stocks are nearing or breaking 52-week highs and that is wonderful news, but there is also the reality that, "these are 52-week highs". My fellow Americans, what goes up… you get the point. I’m sure many of you have already noticed the hike at the gas pumps and if you couldn’t buy a home before, good luck now. Our U.S. currency matched an all-time low yesterday as new-home sales rose less than economists forecast. The dollar has dropped 3.4% this year against the euro amid concern U.S. growth will trail that of Europe. You all have heard plenty about the subprime meltdown and how houses are more expensive than cars in Detroit. The great Motor City is slowly dying and not even it’s home town hero Eminem can save it or Kid Rock. Folks, this week Japan’s Toyota took a step closer to unseating General Motors as the world’s biggest automaker, outselling its US rival by around 90,000 units in the first quarter. It’s time to face reality, we are entering into murky waters and for middle America it’s not getting any easier. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have said that the biggest risk to the economy is if inflation doesn’t recede as they currently predict. The hope is that inflation will ease as economic growth slows.

Now I’m sure the bulls are going to keep charging, they got all of America amp ‘d up, but for how long and what comes next? We want to see a gradual slowdown, we all know the U.S. economy is cooling down, but with everything running on full-steam — how can this happen? Remember in February when Japan’s little hick-up caused the Dow to drop 416 points in a single session? That was fun.

We are caught up in the moment and trapped right in the middle of an Eminem song:
This whole rhapsody, better go capture this moment
And hope it don’t collapse on him…..

You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow
Cuz opportunity comes once in a lifetime

Playing the stock market and investing your money can change in flash, and rather then sit back and do nothing, listen to the signs before a possible collapse is upon us. With so many things going so great and with so much being ignored, we could be heading for the same repeat of May 2006. When it comes to your retirement savings, you only get "one shot" to get it right, so above all, be proactive and take the gains while you still can. I would love to be wrong America, I would love to be wrong…

But what if I’m not?

Frank Lara Jr.
April 25, 2007

Frank Lara Jr. can be reached at [email protected]; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.