Intel: Earnings Taking Stock to $27.50 or $25.00? (INTC, NVLS, AMD, SMH)

After today’s close we’ll get to see earnings out of processor giant Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC).  Wall Street estimates out of First Call put expectations at $0.19 EPS and $8.54 Billion.  Intel shares are up more than 1% ahead of eranings, and anything above $26.04 on the day is an 18-month high.

The average buy target from Wall Street is north of $27.50.  Options activity and influence will depend on the news, but Intel shares are nestled right in between strike prices with options expiring this Friday.  In theory, that could cause either the $27.50 or $25.00 strike prices to act as a magnet with those being the nearest strike prices.  Options trading in Intel could be a huge run of volume and it won’t be surprising at all if Intel trades more than 100 million shares tomorrow.  With shares at 18-month highs, any additional strength should be considered a further break-out pattern by technicians.

Even a somewhat tepid outlook with hopes of more from Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) last night isn’t managing to put an end to tech stocks and their subsequent rally we have seen.  There is quite a bit of hope ahead of the keystone industry event Semicon West in San Francisco.  There are hopes that Novellus will get some upward revisions based on other sectors in chip-land, and those hopes are what is keeping the chip-equipment sector up today.

Even the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE:SMH) are trading up more than 1% on the day ahead of Intel’s earnings.  Intel usually offers guidance, so here is the important data: Q3 $0.27 EPS and revenues $9.36 Billion; Fiscal DEC-2007 $1.08 EPS and $37 Billion in revenues.  Intel’s rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) reports earnings Thursday, and you can bet that the action in Intel will have some impact on the perception of AMD.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at [email protected]; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.