Consider the stocks which hit 52-week highs in 2007 and may not be back to those levels of years.

JP Morgan (JPM) hit $53.25 and now trades at just above $39. It may be one of the stronger US banks, but write-offs and the need for more capital could keep shares down. A slowdown in consumer spending, corporate lending, and investment banking activity could keep shares low for another two to three years.

Comcast (CMCSA) traded as high as $30.18. Competition from telecom companies and a need for capital spending may push these shares even lower. A price war with Verizon (VZ) to get market share in the TV and broadband business could go on through the end of the decade.

Intel (INTC) Based on concerns that server and PC sales maybe flattening out, Intel’s shares are down from their 52-week high of $27.99 and could drop below $20 on Q4 results and 2008 forecasts. Even modest weakness in PC growth rates may stop the stock from rising.

Cisco (CSCO) traded as high as $34.24. If an economic slowdown undercuts telecom spending on routers and delays upgrades of broadband systems, concerns about Cisco’s grow rate could persist for several years. It happened to the company in 2004 and 2005 and could happen again.

Apple (AAPL) had a perfect year in 2007. So perfect that it may not be matched for years to come. Mac and iPod sales were better than almost all estimates and the iPhone introduction helped feed the frenzy around the company’s shares. iPod unit sales cannot keep up their old growth rates. A slight stumble by the iPhone or competition from Nokia (NOK) could cap the price of Apple’s stock.

GE (GE) was the poster boy for a good US economy and big growth rates in Asia. Its stock hit a multi-year high at $42.15 and is now down to $34.53. Its consumer financial operations are likely to be troubled due to softness in the US economy. The same holds true for its entertainment unit. If GE cannot show that the projected growth rates for it infrastructure business in Asia are justified, the shares may not see $40 for several years. It happened before between 2001 and 2006.

AT&T (T). The telephone company’s success was based on cost cutting from its mergers, modest results from its landline business, and rapid growth in cellular. Landline revenue is being eroded by VoIP. The company’s new fiber roll-out is going slowly. To pick up broadband customers it may have to get into a price battle with cable companies. And, with 250 million cellphone subscribers in the US, the big growth period in cellular may be moving toward its end.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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