China’s Hang Seng Index is off almost 25% over the last three months. The S&P 500 is barely off 10% over the same period.
A look at some of the components of the Hang Seng looks even worse. During the last 90 days, shares in PetroChina (PTR) are off 40%. Shares in China Life (LFC) are down 40%.
Bank of China is off well over 30%.
All of this is likely to make the middle class in the country feel a little less well off. A great deal of the net worth of the well-off Chinese is in stocks and land.
Under the circumstances, the Chinese consumer may start to buy less. Couple that with falling exports due to slowing economies in the West and it points to a recession.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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