Analysts Defend Alliance Data Systems After Earnings (ADS)

Alliance Data Systems Corp. (NYSE: ADS) is seeing shares surge in pre-market trading this morning.  Alliance is suing Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) over the likely merger failure.  Alliance also posted its earnings yesterday after the close.

The company posted a 14% drop in earnings after losses from a business unit sale and from its failed buyout.  It made $0.42 EPS, down from $0.48 EPS the year before on a net basis, but it posted $0.93 cash earnings versus a $0.93 estimates.  Revenues were up about 15% to $602.7 million, while estimates were looking for almost $601 million.

Alliance also maintained its stance that it could clearly generate double-digit organic growth in both operating and adjusted EBITDA.  The company noted a "combined impact of double-digit organic growth, reductions in capital expenditures and the implementation of additional free cash flow initiatives" will all result in a significant increase in cash flow during 2008. 

Analysts are defending the stock this morning.  There are upgrades from both Bear Stearns and JMP Securities raising ratings to "Outperform" and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey is raising its rating to a Buy from Neutral.  Shares closed at $42.70 yesterday and shares are up over 8% pre-market at $46.40 in early trading.  This was cut in half after the failed Blackstone buyout and the 52-week trading range is $39.54 to $80.79.

Jon C. Ogg
January 31, 2008