Alcoa (AA): A Weather Vane For Inflation

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By Douglas A. McIntyre Published
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Wall St. liked Alcoa’s (AA) earnings. They were down, but no by as much as most analysts had supposed.

Earnings at the metal company dropped 24% to $546 million. Revenue was down 6% to $7.36 billion, but the shares moved up.

The reason for the enthusiasm was simple. Alcoa was able to step on the inflation pedal to keep its margins up. "Higher prices for our products and increased volumes more than offset the increased input costs facing the entire industry," Klaus Kleinfeld, Alcoa chief executive officer, said in a statement.

What Alcoa is saying is not unlike the word coming out the oil and chemical industries. Dow Chemical (DOW) recently raised prices on a number of its products by 20%. The firm did not indicate that it felt these huge increases would badly dent demand. The price of gas and oil are also up, but there is no indication that demand is down sharply.

Part of the strength in Alcoa’s results is due to the fact that is sells much of its product overseas. Customers in Asia are willing to pay higher prices to keep their GDPs moving up. Better to get the building bricks of expansion at a premium than not to get them at all.

Alcoa is the first big US company to report results and those results are telling. The cost of commodities is rising fast, but the amount firms can charge for their refined products is rising faster.

It is textbook inflation.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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