Today was a strange day in the markets because of the Uncle Sam bailouts, but there are many stocks which showed activity on their charts exhibiting breakout or reversal patterns. Whether they continue is something else entirely. We would caution that with the markets also being this strong there are many stocks in our screening universe that looked up much more than they should have been.
Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ: NTRS) was a surprise weekend review stock evenbefore today’s lift from Fannie/Freddie helped it close up 4.7% at $84.13. This bank has largely beenunscathed by subprime and by the credit crunch despite the billions ofdollars it manages for its own bank and trust clients. This put in anew 52-week high today which is essentially all-time highs if youaccount for dividends going back to 2000. If Monday was no fluke, thislooks like it could go to $86.00 in the interim before running intotechnical areas.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is a perfect example. The stockclosed above its prior $61.00 high of the last 52-weeks. Shares closedup over 2% at $62.00 today. This also gets it back above those oldnominal highs (before backing out dividends) of May 2004 and back tounadjusted highs of $62.00 and higher in 2002. The choices are prettystraight forward here. If you believe merely in range-bound markets thenwe’re seeing the tops as you would say the "economic trade-down" is closer to petering out. if you believe that stocks hitting 52-week highscontinue to hit new highs, then you have no worries until closer to$64.00.
TD AMERITRADE Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) closed up 2.8% at$21.49, barely above its 52-week high of $21.41 of last week. This isalso above the highs of summer 2007. If the stock can go north of$22.00 from the April and May (2006) highs, then traders are going tobe looking up to $24.00 to $25.00 as the next round of major resistance fromlate 2005 and early 2006.
Chico’s FAS (NYSE: CHS) may be premature after a +5.5% gain to $6.67 but that is the great thingabout charts arguably just being haphazard and coincidental patterns.There is no way to know if this one has broken out or if it has justput in a bottom. You could even make the case that Olympic swimmerMichael Phelps’ mom joining as a PR ploy marked the bottom. We won’ttry to over-analyze it. But even if it goes back lower to $5.00 orunder at least it is starting to look like its own Bataan Death Marchis behind it.
Again, we are not forecasting that the bottom has been in some of theseor that breakouts are going to be continued and assured. These arejust chart patterns that we look for and that others look for inpotential running stocks.
Jon C. Ogg
September 8, 2008
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