Juniper Guidance, Oddly Moving Cisco (JNPR, CSCO)

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) has issued preliminary guidance for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. The networking company said that the revenue range is going to be between $760 million to $765 million.  This is below the prior guidance of $800 million to $830 million and under the First Call estimate of $794.3 million.  The first result might not be as bad as you think, and this may even have a Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) angle to it.

The company said that the shortfall is primarily due to lower-than-expected service provider sales.  Before you think it is all going down, there is actually good news or decent news on the earnings front.  The company also noted that as a result of previously communicated expense reduction initiatives it sees total non-GAAP operating expenses for the quarter of between $375 million and $380 million rather than prior guidance of approximately $408 million. So now Juniper expects non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 to $0.17 rather than a prior guidance of $0.15 to $0.17, while First Call has estimates of $0.17 EPS. It sees operating margin at roughly 16%.  Just to exhibit how far estimates have come down, those earnings estimates for this quarter were $0.29 EPS less than 90 days ago.

Shares closed down 2.7% at $15.62 in regular trading, but rose 10% at $17.35 in after-hours trading.  Cisco Systems fell by almost 4% today to $16.85 in normal trading, but the stock has recovered 2.2% to $17.22 in after-hours trading. The reason this is so odd that Juniper is moving Cisco is that Cisco is still roughly 10-times larger in sales.  Sometimes the tail can wag the dog.

JON C. OGG