Harley (HOG) Buyers Go Down Scale

Over the past week, the 24/7 Wall St.–The Channel Checkers poll surveyed Harley Davidson dealers.  We asked the following questions:

1. What is the best selling motorcycle model right now?

2. Are they sold out of any models right now?

3. How is business compared to this time last year?

4. Has there been an increase in sales in the past month?

• 36% of respondents cited some version of the Sportster as the top selling model right now. The 09 FLXH Street Glide was seen as the top seller by 16% and 12% see the Night Train Softtail.

• 87% of respondents said they were not sold out of any models. 13% cited some models that were out of stock.

• 52% of respondents say that business is the same as a year ago. 36% say business is worse while 12% say it is better.

• 57% of respondents said that sales had not increased in the past month. 43% said they had. This mix of responses is a significant deviation from the trend we have seen across many of our covered companies in the past.

Conclusion of Channel Check:  Harley dealers continue to see demand focused on their lower end models (from a price point perspective).  Inventories appear to be sufficient to match demand.  Business appears to be the same or lower according to 88% of respondents. The 57% citing lower sales in the past month should be a concern for investors as it is a sharp deviation in this answer set versus the past few months.

For access to the underlying survey or for more information, please contact Jason Katz at 415.867.0959 or [email protected]