When The NASDAQ Never Drops (QQQQ, SPY)

While a market can go from a mega-bear market to a mega-bull market, steady rises become the usual.  But when you see an 11 day consecutive rise and then a gain ‘again’ that would make a twelfth consecutive day rally in an index, this becomes very much out of the norm regardless of what kind of market and economy you are in.  That is the case for the NASDAQ, and ditto for the NASDAQ 100 measured by the PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) ETF.  We have seen a steady rise in the S&P 500 in the same period, but the SPDRs (NYSE: SPY) does not have the exact same number of consecutive winning days.  Then there is a chart showing some of the internal readings of late…

The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) are up $0.65 today at $39.15, and that compares to the following descending gains as follows: $38.50, $38.18, $37.92, $37.56, $37.36, $36.92, $35.72, $35.59, $34.92, $34.77, and $34.71 was the first up-day after seeing $34.53 on July 7 after we saw $35.41 on July 6.

Conversely, while we have seen a nice steady gain the SPDRs it is not as many up-days…. Today’s gain of $1.70 to $97.25 compares to the rally as follows (trailing closing prices): $95.55, $95.57, $95.13, $94.13, $93.11, $93.26, $90.61, $90.10, $87.96, $88.17,$88.00, $88.06 on July 6.

We compiled a QQQQ chart from StockCharts.com to show how the MACD is getting back up close to very overbought levels if you you look at MACD trends.  The notion that we are in earnings season makes this even more challenging.  The end result is that the bull is as strong as it can be.  But every beast needs a breather from a time to time.

Jon C. Ogg
July 23, 2009