Next Week's Top 10 Earnings on Deck (AAPL, UNH, YHOO, FCX, WFC, T, MCD, POT, MSFT, SLB)

We have almost an endless wave of corporate earnings for the calendar Q3-2009 coming out next week.  We have what looks to be over 100 of the S&P 500 Index members reporting and what appears to be 12 current or ex-DJIA components reporting earnings as well.  Coming up with a Top 10 is almost unfair, but this coming week’s top ten earnings we will be focusing on are as follows: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD), Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB).

We screened out the companies whose destiny has already been set by competitor earnings from this last week and screened out the ones which will have no real broad impact but are still widely held and actively traded. Lastly, we screened out the drug and medical companies as we are featuring those in their own group at BioHealthInvestor.com.  A more detailed estimate count from Thomson Reuters has been provided, along with data showing performance from the March 9 close and the June 30 closing date along with other pertinent information on each stock.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is on deck for a Monday post-close report.  Apple has been hitting 52-week highs and estimates are $1.42 EPS on $9.2 billion in revenues.  Steve Jobs and friends do offer very conservative and sand-bagged guidance, and the coming quarter estimates are $1.91 EPS and $11.44 billion in revenues.  Be advised that this report also marks its formal year-end.  Shares are up 32% since the June 30 close and are up a whopping 126% from the March 9 close.  Apple is now ranked as #10 on our 24/7 Wall St. Real-Time 500 Largest Companies In America.  Friday’s cautious research note from Oppenheimer may have taken some wind from the Apple sails, but keep in mind that shares are literally within about 5% of being back to all-time highs of $200 ($202.96).

UnitedHealth Group Inc.    (NYSE: UNH) is on deck for Tuesday.  This may not seem like the most important stock out there considering it is a health insurance stock.  But as the Obama administration has changed from healthcare reform to health insurance reform, this one will likely set the tone for how every other health insurance provider is received.  Consensus estimates are all over the place, with consensus as $0.77 EPS and $21,54 billion in revenues.  For fiscal 2009 the estimates are $3.09 EPS on $86.87 billion in revenues, which effectively gives it a forward 8-times earnings multiple.  That is because the sector is under fire and most now assume that the big players in the health insurance sector are being turned into a regulated utility.  But it isn’t all doom and gloom.  Shares are down about 1% since June 30, but they are up almost 40% from the March 9 close.  UNH’s 52-week trading range is $15.19 to $30.25 and its market cap is now $28.6 billion.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is also on deck for after the close on Tuesday.  The company is not going to have any broad market impact, but it has an army of shareholders who are buried in the stock that were hoping for that Microsoft buyout that Jerry Yang botched so badly.  Estimates are $0.07 EPS on $1.12 billion in ex-TAC revenues, and next quarter is expected at $0.10 EPS and $1.22 billion in revenues.  Carol Bartz is believed to be a big boost for Yahoo! and its trimming of losing operations is believed to have lent a hand for Q4 or for 2010 after the charges have all been realized.  But the advertising revenues better be strong to match Google’s advances from last week, or there is going to be the feeling that things are only getting better because the company is leaner.  The Microsoft search-ad swap won’t have had any time to add to last quarter, and asset sale closings will likely not be recognized until the Q4 period.  Shares have risen by about 6% since the June 30 close and are up “only” 32% since the March 9 close.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) is on deck for Wednesday Oct. 21 and is an unlikely “10 most important” earnings reports.  But we have been dying to get a better read for what lower energy prices and massively higher gold prices over $1,000 is doing for the bottom-line for the gold miners and producers. Estimates are $1.35 EPS on $4.18 billion in revenues, and estimates for the current quarter that we’ll get in three months are only $1.08 EPS on $3.63 billion in revenues.  There is not just some fluff here.  Shares are above $75.00 and the 52-week trading range is $15.70 to $76.55.  Shares are up 50% from June 30 and up a whopping 135% from March 9.

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) probably already has its fate sealed by how JPMorgan, Citi, and B of A have all reported.  But it is Berkshire Hathaway’s top bank and the personal stock of Warren Buffett, so we are including it.  Estimates are $0.36 EPS and $21.63 billion in revenues.  Despite a 4% drop mid-day on Friday, this stock is up 25% since the June 30 close and up just over 200% from the March 9 close.

AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) is on deck for Thursday and the performance has been low enough that it almost made the list of underperforming companies which the rally has left behind.  Estimates are $0.50 EPS on $30.87 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS on $30.87 billion in revenues as well.  AT&T shares are up only about 7% from the June 30 close and are up just over 25% from the March 9 close.  The obvious issue to watch here is how little land-line erosion it has had, how its AT&T Wireless is doing, and how many uVerse TV and fiber subscribers it has added.  And Verizon of course is the stock to watch for the primary reaction.

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is on deck Thursday morning and estimates are $1.11 EPS and $6.1 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.99 EPS and $5.87 billion in revenues.  Shares are up only about 3% from the June 30 close and up about 16% since the March 9 close.  The 52-week trading range is $50.44 to $64.46 and the question is on about just how much more it can benefit from the recession and the trade-down now that things are getting better and now that so many more upscale restaurant stocks have rallied significantly.  This was a runner up in the stocks not participating in the rally, but Burger King took that ‘honor in the screen.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.    (NYSE: POT) is on deck for Thursday morning and estimates are $0.81 EPS and $1.06 billion in revenues.  As Mosaic said it would not offer guidance on potash, this is a wild card despite significant warnings and earnings disappointments from the fertilizer and potash sector leaders.  To show how severe this is, that is a drop of almost two-thirds of revenues year over year.  Shares are up close to 4% from June 30 and are up almost 40% from the March 9 lows.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is now the second largest US player by market cap in our Real-Time 500 US Companies index.  The company has also changed its old reporting habits and is now reporting earnings early Friday morning.  So much for a break from earnings season on Friday.  Estimates from the software giant are $0.32 EPS and $12.4 billion in revenues, and the next quarter estimates are $0.52 EPS and $17.12 billion in revenues.  There are too many moving parts to peg just one issue here, but the release of Windows 7 is obviously the biggest upcoming event to watch.  Shares of Microsoft are up 11% since June 30 and are up a severe 74% from the March 9 closing bell.

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) is on deck next Friday morning and is effectively on the second of the giant oil players in services as we had Halliburton report this morning.  Estimates are $0.63 EPS and $5.5 billion in revenues.  Obviously oil’s recent rise to above $75 makes this more interesting to many players.  Shares are up 26% since June 30 and are up a whopping 88% since the March 9 close.  This is deemed by many traders and investors as the top oil services company of them all so it is a key bogey for the sector.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.  As a reminder, these earnings estimates may change after the weekend and ahead of the actual reporting.  It is also possible that earnings dates will change.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 16, 2009