This week is going to make last week’s earnings flood look like elementary school.  We have the floodgates opening for technology, web, software, hardware, and IT, and 24/7 Wall Street has previewed 14 of the top technology stocks that are on deck to report earnings this coming week:  Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN), SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK), Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX), Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW), EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM), Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR), Synaptics Inc. (NASDAQ: SYNA), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT).

We have provided the first details for earnings, Thomson Reuters consensus data, added color of our own on the earnings trends, listed key issues to watch, and included the performance from the June 30 close and from the March 9 close that traders are using as the key pivotal turning day where the bear market died and a new bull market run began.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is on deck to report after the closing bell on Monday to show its fiscal 2009 year-end report.  Apple has been hitting 52-week highs and estimates are $1.42 EPS on $9.2 billion in revenues.  Steve Jobs and friends do offer guidance (conservative and sand-bagged), and the estimates for the Dec-2009 (Q1-2010) are $1.91 EPS and $11.45 billion in revenues.  Shares are up over 30% since June 30 and up about 125% from the March 9 close.  Apple is now ranked as #10 on our 24/7 Wall St. Real-Time 500 Largest Companies In America.  Friday’s cautious research note from Oppenheimer and the disappointment from most other earnings reports may have taken some wind from the Apple sails.

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) is on deck for earnings Monday after the close.  The $0.39 EPS expected has greatly improved from before its last earnings, but the $2.82 billion expected in revenues would compare to $3.387 billion in the year-ago period.  TI shares essentially slid all week, and this major recall from Ford is a blemish that will have an impact on the calendar Q4 rather than on the quarter-end of September that is due on Monday.  What the charges will be and what the ramifications will be have not yet been defined, but the cruise control deactivation switches under the recall are made by TI and the 4.5 million expanded recalls appears to have come to a full tally of about 14 million.  Next quarter estimates are $0.40 EPS and $2.78 billion in revenues, at least that is before any charges and freebies in the Ford recall.  Be advised that this next quarter will also mark the level where revenues appear to be back on track for growth from the year-ago periods as the Q4-2008 period was when business fell off the cliff.  TI shares are up 7% since June 30 and are up over 55% from the March 9 close.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is back from the abyss and will report after the close on Tuesday.  Shares have rallied 300% from their 52-week lows now that business and profitability have returned.  Shares are up 42% from June 30 and they are up 175% from the March 9 close.  Estimates are $0.25 EPS and $786.69 million in revenues.  For the current quarter due in Dec-2009 the estimates are $0.18 EPS and $857.67 million.  Be advised that SanDisk blew estimates away last quarter by returning to profitability a full two quarters ahead of expectations.  Based upon the last report and based upon the run-up its shares have seen, the largest independent leader of flash memory is probably going to have to give another “Wow!” report to keep everyone happy.

Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX) is set to report earnings on Tuesday, and rival Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is set to report on Thursday.  Both companies have recovered exponentially from 52-week lows: STX at 400% and WDC at over 250% from lows.  With estimates raised and expectations raised, these are the figures:

• Seagate has an implied market cap of $7.57 billion and is expected to post $0.46 EPS on $2.62 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.55 EPS and $2.75 billion in revenues.
• Western Digital has a market cap of $8.05 billion and is expected to post $0.92 EPS on $2.04 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.07 EPS and $2.18 billion in revenues.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is also on deck for after the close on Tuesday.  The company is not going to have any broad market impact, but it has an army of shareholders who are buried in the stock that were hoping for that Microsoft buyout that Jerry Yang botched so badly.  Estimates are $0.07 EPS on $1.12 billion in ex-TAC revenues, and next quarter is expected at $0.10 EPS and $1.22 billion in revenues.  Carol Bartz is believed to be a big boost for Yahoo! and its trimming of losing operations is believed to have lent a hand for Q4 or for 2010 after the charges have all been realized.  But the advertising revenues better be strong here to match Google’s advances from last week, or there is going to be the feeling that things are only getting better because the company is leaner.  The Microsoft search-ad swap won’t have had any time to add to last quarter, and asset sale closings will likely not be recognized until the Q4 period.  Shares have risen by about 6% since the June 30 close and are up “only” 32% since the March 9 close.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) will be more than interesting to see, partly because of the pending Skype process and partly over its explanation of what has been happening in the auction markets now that the consumer is recovering at least somewhat.  Estimates are $0.37 EPS and $2.14 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.40 EPS and $2.26 billion in revenues.  It is hard to believe that eBay was trading at less than 10-times projected earnings just a few months ago.  Shares have risen by 43% since June 30 and are up a whopping 138% from the March 9 close.  This now trades at 16.2-times implied 2009 estimates of $1.52 EPS and trades at 14.9-times implied 2010 earnings estimates of $1.64 EPS.  Look for eBay to offer some guidance, sans-Skype, for 2010.

VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) is due on Wednesday afternoon, a day ahead of ex-parent and still quasi-parent EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC).  VMware is still the leader in virtualization and has recovered handily from its lows.  While it is close to 52-week highs, this is still only about 40% of post-IPO highs when shares were above $100.00 in and out from October to December in 2007.  Estimates are $0.20 EPS on $473.9 million in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.25 EPS on $523.1 million in revenues.  Our two biggest issues here are a very slow return of enterprise spending and an environment with more dense competition from Oracle, Microsoft, and Citrix.

EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) is also up over 100% from its absolute lows and close to 52-week highs.  Earnings are due Thursday morning, and estimates are $0.21 EPS on $3.45 billion in revenues this last quarter and $0.29 EPS and $3.97 billion for the Q4 period.  While storage spending is seeming to be endless, we still have at least some pause about the jump expected from the Q3 to Q4 period because of the slow return of enterprise and cap-ex spending.  It may also want to or need to continue its acquisition campaign to keep its trajectory.  With a warchest of $10 billion as of last quarter before its pending Data Domain Inc. (NASDAQ: DDUP) acquisition and effectively double that amount in the majority stake it owns in VMware, we expect the deal flow to continue from EMC.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is on deck to report Thursday after the close.  For Jeff Bezos to get to have his big notorious laugh, he needs to deliver some serious results over and above estimates, or at least we think so, based on the post-earnings reactionary drop last quarter and based on valuations.  The online retail king is expected to post $0.33 EPS and $5.02 billion in revenues, and the Christmas quarter is expected to be $0.62 EPS and $8.08 billion.  With estimates at $1.69 EPS for 2009 and $2.17 EPS for 2010, the $95.32 share price gives implied earnings multiples of 56.3 for 2009 and 43.9 for 2010.  Shares are up almost 14% from June 30, and that is even including the drop seen after the last earnings when shares rose to 93.87 in the days before earnings and dropped immediately down to $86.49 the next day. Shares are also up almost 60% from March 9.  Frankly, there is really nothing not to love about Amazon.com.  With its internal price comparisons, ability to sell new and used, its ability to offer shoppers a flu-fear-free shopping experience, and now its same-day experience coming to some markets, the only concern we have is what sort of earnings multiple Bezos and friends have in the stock.  We eed a “Wow!” report and “Wow!” guidance for us to not believe a repeat of last quarter’s post-earnings reaction will be likely.

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) is on deck Thursday and hard to judge this far ahead of time.  Its end markets are mixed between recovering handily and semi-recovering or stabilizing.  Getting direct comparisons is also getting harder and Texas Instruments may set the tone for it on Monday regardless of what Broadcom says on Thursday.  Its shares are also up over 100% from absolute lows of the last year, up about 20% from June 30 and up over 80% from the March 9 close.  Estimates here are $0.33 EPS and $1.16 billion in revenues (vs. $1.298 billion a year ago), and next quarter’s estimates are $0.34 EPS and $1.19 billion in revenues (vs. $1.126 billion a year ago).

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) is one of our few sub-$1 billion in revenue companies, but many traders try to get a glimpse of Juniper to try to interpret the much larger arch-rival Cisco’s earnings (due in a month).  Estimates here are $0.21 EPS and $799.43 million in revenues and next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $835.23 million in revenues.

Synaptics Inc. (NASDAQ: SYNA) is by far our smallest “most important tech earnings” but the stock has performed dismally.  The earnings figures have been brought down and the unofficial consensus is under its last guidance because of concerns of push-outs and competition highlighted in a key analyst downgrade last week.  Shares rose 5% to close at $22.64 on Friday, but the stock is DOWN over 40% from June 30 and is now up a whopping 4% from the March 9 date we are benchmarking every stock to.  The valuations here are dirt cheap and the short interest seems elevated, so with a very low bar being set we’d put the “trader alert” status on this one.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) has changed its reporting structure now to a Friday-morning format.  The #2 US stock by market cap in our Real-Time 500 US Companies index is expected to post $0.32 EPS and $12.4 billion in revenues, and the next quarter estimates are $0.52 EPS and $17.12 billion in revenues.  There are too many moving parts to peg just one issue here, but we view the release of Windows 7 as the biggest upcoming event to watch despite some temperance being signaled by Steve Ballmer.  Shares are up about 11% since June 30 and are up over 70% from the March 9 closing bell.

As a reminder, all estimates from Thomson Reuters can change daily and some are likely to change before the earnings reports get here.  We will follow-up with more detailed preview on each daily to give traders the added ammo they need to pick these earnings apart for shorter-term and longer-term decisions.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 17, 2009

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