Investing

The Unusual Suspects (AMZN, AAPL, COST, FTR, HUN, SOMX, S, TTWO, WFC, BAC, BRK-A, YHOO)

This was a wild week, and perhaps a disappointment that the news did not propel stocks even higher.  There were many key movers though, and we have a very active panel of very active and widely held shares for traders and investors to keep an eagle eye on in the coming week.  This coming week’s unusual suspects are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Frontier Communications Corp (NYSE: FTR), Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN), Somaxon Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SOMX), Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S), Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO).

We have given a full run down on each company and links to even more detailed data where appropriate.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) may have finally crossed a threshold of caution versus exuberance from investors.  This week we outlined some issues that run against the overly bullish call from Jim Cramer with his $214 price target, mainly that he left no room for any missteps or any other issues out there.  After the Cramer call, JMP Securities began coverage with a “Market Perform” rating.  At a minimum Cramer just caught a near-term top because in 48 hours shares closed down over $5.00 with a 2-day losing streak after shares had been putting in close to a $1.00 gain on average per day since the start of November. There are also added rumors that it may make a $3 billion acquisition of Vente-Privee in fashion and eCommerce.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one of the unusual suspects.  What is getting interesting here is that a rather influential technician gave an audio/video presentation yesterday calling for an exit on the long-side trade that they have been in for months and months.  We looked further into this and it turns out that Apple is right at the point that it is at least exiting the last step of that long-term uptrend that has been in place.  In fact, after Adam Hewison’s call, this closed under the 50-day moving average for the first time in over 6-months.  Options trading on Friday also reached the point that the closest out of the money call and put options traded what is effectively the entire open interest that was there.  Friday was also the most volatile day in over a month with almost a 5% intra-day price band from high to low.  And now there are reports it is buying Lala for cloud-based music.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) will be the big retail earnings to watch this week with earnings due this coming Thursday.  The company posted a gain of 6% in same store sales for November, but Thomson Reuters had estimates of about 8%. The real problem was that domestic same store sales were up only 2%.  Still this was a gain and it may lend credibility that the earnings could post an upside to the $0.60 EPS and $17.2 billion expected from Thomson Reuters.  The big box retailer will have to probably do even better than its most recent upside surprise on earnings though compared to estimates for the stock to run up.  Shares only lost about 1% this last week and at $59.19 they are only 4% under the $61.25 high (Nov. 16) of the last 52-weeks.

Frontier Communications Corp (NYSE: FTR) had astronomically unusual trading volume on Friday.  Shares closed up 1% at $8.46 but on over 11.8 million shares.  That was on top of 8.4 million on Thursday and on top of 6 million shares on each Wednesday and Tuesday. Average volume had been 3 million shares before this week’s interest.  Friday’s stock options trading was 16,684 contracts of the DEC $7.50 CALLS versus an open interest of only 1,128 contracts.  But the huge options trade was 144,000 of the JAN-2010 $7.50 CALLS versus a prior open interest of 9,576 contracts.  Gee, what do you think that’s all about.

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) may be back in play and it has seen 5 days of consecutive run-ups.  We noted on Thursday how options activity was spiking on buyout rumors with the stock.  It turns out that options were again active on Friday.  Private equity tried to acquire this for $28.00 back in the M&A day, so this might make sense as DuPont (NYSE: DD) was one the rumored acquirer.  If there is no deal or continued talk of a deal on Monday, then Huntsman might have to give back some of the 15% gain it saw this last week.

Somaxon Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SOMX) did not, nor did the FDA, post whether or not Silenor was approved for insomnia.  We and other websites had earmarked a December 4 deadline for the FDA.  A search over Somaxon site, the FDA site, and message boards… we saw nothing of any approval or rejection.  Be advised if this is approved or given a solid nod… Somaxon has an effective shelf registration that would allow it to raise up to $150 million in mixed securities sales.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) has two things going for it.  First and foremost Barron’s gave this a thumbs up over the weekend saying it is starting to hit its stride after past missteps and shares could be 50% undervalued.  We also noted yesterday that the iPCS deal closure effectively formally and permanently eliminates its lawsuits over competing against affiliates.  It said it bought 700,000 subscribers, but it effectively bought hundreds of millions of dollars of open-ended liabilities had that suit gone against it in the manner we thought it would go.  Our take: look for a 2% pop on Monday morning if no new data comes out between now and Monday morning.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) may have highlighted its own woes and the woes of the video game sector.  But we think this might be at least a start for some of the longer-term investors to get to look at some of the top video game stocks if they have a very long-term outlook without the goal of trying to make a quick buck in the short term.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) could be the next TARP re-payer after Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) made its TARP sale that went so well according to discussions we have had with traders.  BofA’s success gave a blueprint and this was able to be closed much faster, more successfully, and without any damage to the share price from major dilution that this actually makes sense.  The caveat here is that Wells Fargo has not been as public over compensation and over the woes of the public criticism, but it also had a $25 billion TARP sum rather than $45 billion from BofA.  The market caps were close enough before the effects of the new Bank of America shares issued, that this would be even less dilutive to Wells Fargo.  The bank could probably even get Uncle Warren Buffett to get Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) to step in to assist as an investor on top of its already-large holdings in Wells Fargo. Imagine entering 2010 without Uncle Sam up your… well in your back pocket.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) may have gotten the question mark taken off its shares.  The company announced after the close on Friday that it has “finalized and executed” its definitive Search and Advertising Services and Sales Agreement and License Agreement with Microsoft.  While most agreed this was coming, that clears up the last hurdles.  Shares rose marginally after-hours, but all things being equal and barring no new data between now and Monday we’d be looking for a gain of close to 1% Monday morning.

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JON C. OGG

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