52-Week Lows Soon Gone in Tech (AMZN, AAPL, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT ORCL, RIMM, SNDK)

The 52-week low search is a common tool used by value investors, momentum investors, growth investors, and traders in various price screens to help decide when to a buy or sell a stock.  The 52-week lows in many sectors are exponentially lower than what share prices reflect today because a year ago we were at the zenith of the steady panic selling. The more commonly used trading day is march 9, 2009 for the low close in the markets even though the lows of many stocks came in the few days before or after that turning point. We wanted to see how this calendar roll would affect the 52-week ranges as we get one-week, two-weeks, and one-month beyond that March 9 date.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) are the ones we covered either for size or for trading volume as sector leaders.  We added in color on the moves seen on each and how those moves compare to the past decade.  We also gave the approximate dates where the 52-week trading ranges would be ‘normalized’ versus today’s ranges.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is at $125.89 and its 52-week range is $59.82 to $145.91.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $60.49; a week later shares were $66.98; two-weeks later shares were $75.58; and a month later shares were $79.77.  This was one of the top gainers with a 150% move from low to high, something that was not normal but not unheard of.  It was not until earnings season in October 2009 that the shares ramped to over $100.00… We have another 7 months or so before Amazon.com has a normalized 52-week range.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), the champion of Wall Street and Main Street, is at $209.33 and its 52-week range is $82.33 to $215.59.  That trumps over 150% gains from low to high.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $83.11; a week later shares were $95.42; two-weeks later shares were $107.66; and a month later shares were $119.57.  That $36 move was large but not unheard of for a month in Apple.  It took until July 2009 for Apple to hit $160 and August 2009 before we saw a $170 print.  Unless it has another run-up, it will be a few more months before Apple has a ‘matured’ 52-week trading range.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is at $24.84 and its 52-week range is $13.61 to $25.10.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $13.62; a week later shares were $15.45; two-weeks later shares were $16.98; and a month later shares were $17.82.  It took only until May 7 until Cisco hit $20.00, so it will be another two months before the 52-week trading range looks more normal from lows to highs.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is at $545.32 and its 52-week range is $289.45 to $629.51.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $290.89; a week later shares were $319.69; two-weeks later shares were $348.60; and a month later shares were $372.50.  That month was probably more just like a good month than others considering Google can run that much in normal times.  It was not until September 22, 2009 when Google got a $500 handle.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is at $20.52 and its 52-week range is $12.07 to $21.55.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $12.16; a week later shares were $13.81; two-weeks later shares were $15.04; and a month later shares were $15.49.  The biggest processor company will  still show gains of 33% in another month from the 52-week lows, which is less abnormal from low to high in many years.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is at $28.46 and its 52-week range is $14.87 to $31.50.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $14.83; a week later shares were $15.91; two-weeks later shares were $17.95; and a month later shares were $19.26.  Microsoft will show a gain of 50% or so for some extra time, but for a dead money stock for nearly a decade this is just about the only time we have seen a doubling from low to high in some time.

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is at $24.50 and its 52-week range is $13.80 to $25.64.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $13.72; a week later shares were $14.76; two-weeks later shares were $18.08; and a month later shares were $18.98.  Oracle is rare to see a near-double and in another month the 52-week range is about to look much more narrow.

Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is at $70.83 and its 52-week range is $35.05 to $88.08.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $35.25; a week later shares were $39.17; two-weeks later shares were $44.90; and a month later shares were $64.18.  In another month RIM will likely have a very tight 52-week trading range.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is at $31.80 and its 52-week range is $7.53 to $33.25.  On March 9, 2009, its shares were at $7.65 ; a week later shares were $9.83 ; two-weeks later shares were $11.25 ; and a month later shares were $14.48.  SanDisk will still appear to be a double or more for some time to come because its rally came later in the summer during earnings season.

In another month these stocks are still going to look as though they are much higher than their trailing 52-week lows.  The difference is that these stocks will no longer trade exponentially above their 52-week lows.  This has also started to take a large bite into the 200-day moving averages of many key stocks as their old much lower prices are being replaced by today’s much higher prices.

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JON C. OGG