Jobless Improving, Still Far From Solid

The weekly jobless claims from the Labor Department are still headed in the right direction, albeit they are still very high for historic levels.  The weekly claims came down by 14,000 to 442,000 for the week ended March 20.  We had estimates expecting a drop of 7,000, so this is a better than expected number but perhaps not by such leaps and bounds that it will move the needle much.  The week before was revised down 1,000 to 456,000.

The continuing claims are getting harder to read because so many have gone past the date they can collect benefits and past the date they are to be counted.  Still, the army of unemployed measured by the continuing claims fell by 54,000 to 4,648,000.  That looks to be the lowest since the end of 2008.

The four-week moving average fell to new recent lows as it fell by 11,000 to 453,750 jobs.

We are not yet into the major growth phase of the recovery in jobs. We still have far too many being counted as those who have “opted out of the workforce” and we consider that selective statistics from the Labor Department.  Still, the road to improvement marches on.

The big tell will be the non-Farm payrolls due next week.

JON C. OGG