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The Unusual Suspects (AA, BAC, GE, GOOG, INTC, JPM, ACN, BSX, CTIC, CLNE, LULU, PALM, TROW, LCC, PLND, CEDC)
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This weekend’s roster of the Unusual Suspects is back to earnings, although there are many other key stocks to watch out for this coming week. We did see a very brief hit of 11,000 in the DJIA in the final ten minutes of trading Friday. The cast of characters in the Unusual Suspects for earnings this coming week includes Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). The other more Unusual Suspects with news and events to watch the week ahead are Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN), Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX), Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC), Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE), Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM), T.Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW), and US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC). We will also alert traders to watch Market Vectors Poland ETF (NYSE: PLND) and Central European Distribution Corporation (NASDAQ: CEDC) based on the Polish presidential plane crash that killed Poland’s president and many political elite of Poland.
On earnings previews, we only gave the DJIA components and one other as Google, to save space and time. We have included Thomson Reuters estimates and we have given color on the valuation and other metrics. On the non-earnings stocks, we have given previews for what lies ahead on many of the straggling issues that will go into next week and on upcoming events along with relevant recent actions in each where applicable.
Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) is not our normal rumor mill stock, and may be more gossip than stock fanfare. The company is rumored to be about to endorse Tiger Woods again after withdrawing its sponsorship deal after the Tiger Woods scandal (or folly) broke. Shares were up 2.2% Friday on this at $42.83 and the 52-week range is $26.33 to $43.89. An unusual suspect, for sure.
Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks earnings season off on Monday and Thomson Reuters estimates are $0.11 EPS on $5.19 billion in revenue; versus a loss of -$0.59 EPS a year ago. If it gives guidance, the estimates are $0.24 EPS for next quarter and $0.77 EPS for fiscal 2010; so it trades around 18-times forward earnings and its 52-week range is $8.10 to $17.60. There seems to be a neutral bias here, meaning it would seem to rise with good news or fall with bad news more than other quarters.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is giving earnings Friday with estimates of $0.09 EPS this last quarter and $0.17 EPS next quarter. At $18.55, the 52-week range is $7.00 to $19.10 and we expect to see upside to credit metrics and perhaps a blowout quarter as the only thing that will keep the bulls from taking at least some profits here. Simply meeting estimates and being conservative in stance probably won’t make a rally here.
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) is the turnaround which has never been able to turn around. Many reports were out on Friday that it may sell two of its units (neurovascular business and pain management division, per the rumors) to raise cash and to hone in on its portfolio of medical devices. It has a costly heart defibrillator recall, has a failed buyout of Guidant it wishes it never did, and will have up to $2.7 billion in coming-due payments in 2011. Shares actually closed down marginally at $6.97 versus a 52-week trading range of $6.31 to $11.77. We’ll be looking for analyst support or criticism on Monday.
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) is trying to keep its relevance. It is forging ahead with pixantrone for relapsed or refractory aggressive non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and possibly other indications. It adjourned its special meeting and scheduled a weekend conference call for a company update after it raised money after a disappointing FDA action in recent trading days. Stay tuned, a very unusual suspect indeed.
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) was panned in Barron’s over the weekend despite this being one of the favorite go-to stocks in the world of viable alternative energy. This is T. Boone Pickens’ compressed natural gas play for the use of natural gas as a fuel for trucks rather than gasoline. The article praises the company but said the valuations leave no real upside for investors.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) reports Friday morning and estimates are $0.16 EPS and $37.08 billion in revenues. Estimates next quarter are $0.25 EPS and $38.8 billion in revenue. Its earnings estimates are $1.02 EPS in 2010 and then $1.24 EPS in 2011, That being said, Immelt and friends likely need to beat estimates and raise guidance. If not, then this is not any longer a cheap stock. We noted that Morningstar gave a $25 fair value target recently over the long haul, and we still believe GE will start lifting its dividend either this quarter or this year rather than its 2011 target.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to report $6.57 EPS and $4.93 billion on Thursday, showing over 25% earnings and over 21% revenue growth. The 52-week range is $364.16 to $629.51; and it trades at 20-times 2010 expected earnings and less than 18-times 2011 earnings expectations. With CPMs being very weak in many publisher and site sectors in February and with it having under 70% of search (barely) in March for the first time since June-2008, we’ll be keeping an eye on this one to see if it can blow out its earnings as some analysts are expecting.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is set to report earnings after the close on Tuesday with $0.38 EPS on $9.81 billion in revenues, but some estimates are $0.40 and even $0.41 EPS and some expect revenue above $10 billion. With shares just under $22.50, the 52-week range is $14.96 to $22.75. The 2010 estimate of $1.67 EPS gives this a multiple 13.4-times forward earnings. Intel was at $20.79 before last earnings in January.
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is showing earnings Wednesday morning, and estimates are $0.64 EPS. With estimates at $2.99 for 2010, the current year multiple is 15-times earnings, but it trades at 9.7-times the 2011 estimate of $4.68 EPS. Credit quality metrics should be the biggest key indicator here. With shares at $45.98, the 52-week trading range is $28.87 to $47.47.
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) was again the #1 Stock in the IBD 100. This marks the third week in a row and shares went out at $43.66, up from $41.69 the Friday before and versus $40.57 two Fridays ago when it was first as the #1 on the IBD 100.
Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) was up again on buyout rumors Friday, although the rumor that HTC was considering it was the first “named rumor buyer” since the whole speculation mill turned into the rumor mill. Shares rose over 10% on Friday to $5.16 but Marketwatch noted caution from Tavis McCourt of Morgan Keegan: “at a price of $6 per share… Palm would cost a buyer about $1.7 billion when one accounts for… Elevation Partners…. Does it make some strategic sense for HTC to buy Palm? Yes. Does HTC need Palm? No… Just because it’s a $5 stock doesn’t make it a cheap acquisition.” Friday was Palm’s third consecutive up-day on the same issue.
T.Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) was the cover story of Barron’s over the weekend in a story called “Taking on The World” where Barron’s noted it is laying the groundwork needed to profit from global growth and is just now starting to catch up to rival mutual fund families like Fidelity and still chasing BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and JPMorgan Asset Management.
US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is a perpetual rumor mill stock over the years. Friday’s drop was 3% to $7.32, but this was a $6.82 on Wednesday and it hit as high as $7.87 on Thursday on rumors (or reports) that UAL was interested in buying the company. We’ll see if anything happens on Monday, but this has been panned by the unions, industry executives and analysts. We’d also note that big airline mergers are horrible for the stretched American consumer.
A very sad and unusual event happened over the weekend. The Polish president’s plane crashed in Russia, killing him and many of Poland’s political elite. Among the dead are: President Lech Kaczynski and his wife; head National Security; the president’s chief of staff; National Bank of Poland’s governor; general and chief of staff of the military; Poland’s last president in exile; Deputy speaker of Sejm, lower house of Parliament; deputy foreign minister; deputy speakers of the Senate; the Polish ambassador in Moscow; deputy defense minister. Market Vectors Poland ETF (NYSE: PLND) is the one ETF or fund we have seen before and Central European Distribution Corporation (NASDAQ: CEDC) produces, distributes, imports, and exports alcoholic beverages primarily in Poland, Hungary, and the Russian Federation.
As always, these Thomson Reuters estimates are likely to change as we get closer to each earnings event next week. Stay tuned. You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.
JON C. OGG
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