The Ten States With Miraculous Recoveries In Unemployment

Unemployment numbers  give very little information about how the recession has damaged the economies of cities and states which had relatively high unemployment before the recession. The media have not reported that there is a sharp recovery in unemployment rates in a few areas of the country. This recovery has occurred often in regions where joblessness has been the highest over the last three years.

The collapse of the economy pushed the unemployment rate well into the double digits in some parts of the country. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke recently said it could take as much as four years for the U.S.  economy to get back to the normal rates of joblessness which represent a normal economic recovery. The improvements in some cities and states where unemployment is already high may take much longer to fall to 6% or 7%. That rate may never be reached in the hardest hit cities and states. This is one of the reasons exceptions to that rule are notable.

A look at unemployment by geography does not reveal much that Americans do not already know. The regions of the US which were once home to large factories and the seats of industrial America have jobless rates as high as 13% or 14%. Areas where real estate values grew quickly and then collapsed also have unemployment rates which are 30% or 40% above the national average.

The US unemployment rate was 9.4% in December which was just a slight decrease from November. There were only 103,000 jobs added last month. A number of analysts believe that the unemployment rate fell slightly because several hundred thousand people stopped their search for jobs. That has become a theme of this recession and the modest recovery. People lose hope. The number of weeks that the average unemployed person was out of work rose to 34 weeks in December, near an all-time high. That means many people have not had jobs for more than a year, and in many cases they believe they will not ever find one. Many of the long-term unemployed who do eventually find work have to take large salary cuts compared to their previous jobs.

Economist Nouriel Roubini recently argued that the American jobless rate placed in the larger context of people who are not categorized as “employed” or “unemployed”:

“While the headline (U-3) unemployment rate declined at the rate of 0.408% from 9.8% to 9.4%, the rate of decline in the U-6 underemployment rate was only 0.18% (from 17.0% to 16.7%) as the marginally attached labor force actually increased by 13.5% (from 1.13 million to 1.28 million) partially offsetting the decline in the headline labor force number, and we continue to rely on a good deal of employment that is part time for economic reasons.”

The regions where 24/7 Wall St. found sharp improvements in the jobless rate were dominated by the Great Lake states where the US manufacturing base was for years. Sharp drops in employment in the car and steel businesses and related sectors destroyed millions of jobs in the region. The reasons for the improvements include the fact that many people who could not find jobs have moved south to places like Texas to find work. Unemployment rates often rise when the jobless simply move away. But, there are more positive reasons that jobs have been added in places like Michigan, Illinois and Ohio.

Manufacturers have started to see more demand for their products as the industries they serve recover. That includes what were once the largest employers in the Midwest–Ford and GM. States in the Midwest have also begun to attract new industries and companies because of tax benefits and access to large areas where people are anxious to find work.

Some regions have not been as fortunate as the Midwest. Joblessness rose over the last year in Nevada. Tourism to place like Las Vegas has been slashed by the recession. Construction jobs which were also critical to the prosperity of that region have not returned as the value of Nevada real estate has continue to plummet

24/7 Wall St. also looked at states where unemployment has continued to worsen. Many of these states have very small populations and have had low unemployment rates during the last three years. Changes based on percentages may mean very little. Layoffs in one large industry or a few big companies might affect the workforces in these states significantly.

24/7 Wall St. analyzed the trends of unemployment of the large cities in these states. Urban unemployment is much higher in many states than it is in surrounding areas.  Some state capitals are in large cities. Government layoffs have started to rise. Big cities are also where the largest companies are concentrated. Some of these businesses continue to cut jobs because their sales have not recovered to 2007 levels.

This is the 24/7 Wall St. analysis of the unemployment rates and their impact on the ten states that have had the most improvement from November 2009 to November 2010 and the ten where the jobless situation has worsened the most.

The States That Have Gotten Worse

10. Kansas

November 2009 Unemployment: 6.3%

November 2010 Unemployment: 6.7%

Percent Change: 6.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 65,000

City where rate has increased the most: Lawrence: 5% to 6%, a 20% change.

Kansas’ unemployment rate has increased 6%. For some of the smaller cities, like Wichita, which experienced a 5% increase, the difference can be easily explained by a number of new people entering the labor force. Nevertheless, some of the larger cities, like Topeka, are seeing relative unemployment rate changes between 10% and 20%. Kansas had one of the highest levels of people leaving the state, partially because of the absence of jobs.

9. New Mexico

November 2009 Unemployment: 7.7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 8.2%

Percent Change: 6.5%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 78,500

City where rate has increased the most: Albuquerque: 7.6% to 8.6%, a 15.9% change.

New Mexico saw unemployment rise from 7.7% in November 2009 to 8.2% in November 2010. This equates to a loss of 4,400 jobs in sectors including professional business services, government jobs, retail, transportation and utilities. The city of Albuquerque was particularly hard-hit. The metropolitan region’s unemployment rate increased from 7.6% to 8.6%, a 15.9% change.

8. Florida

November 2009 Unemployment: 11.4%

November 2010 Unemployment: 12.2%

Percent Change: 7%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 1,126,000

City where rate has increased the most: Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 10.7% to 12.1%, a 13.1% change.

In November, 1.1 million members of the Florida workforce were without jobs. If the number of discouraged and underemployed workers were added to the number, Florida’s total unemployed rate would be closer to 20%. Losses in federal and local government jobs make up most of the nearly 18,000 jobs cut last year.

7. West Virginia

November 2009 Unemployment: 8.2%

November 2010 Unemployment: 8.8%

Percent Change: 7.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 68,400

City where rate has increased the most: Morgantown: 5.2% to 5.8%, a 11.5% change.

West Virginia experienced a significant spike in unemployment this month and is now at its highest rate in eight months. According to the director of West Virginia University’s Bureau of Business and  Economic Research, the state historically has one of the worst labor force participation rates – the percentage of people with jobs or who are still looking for jobs – in the country. Another member of the committee predicted that the state wouldn’t reach pre-recession unemployment lows for at least another four years. The city which has suffered the most is Charleston, which experienced a 11.1% gain over the last year. You have unemployment rising more rapidly in the cities than in the whole state.

6. Idaho

November 2009 Unemployment: 8.7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 9.4%

Percent Change: 8.0%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 71,100

City where rate has increased the most: Idaho falls: 6.3% to 7.3%, a 15.9% change.

Idaho’s unemployment had hovered near 8.4-8.5% over the past few months, and November’s 9.4% rate is by far the highest since the recession’s peak was reached in March. However, Idaho’s unemployment problems are actually more pronounced than the year-over-year numbers suggest. The jobless rate was only 8.3% in September, and is now more than a full percentage point greater than that. Idaho Falls saw unemployment increase 15.9%. The trend of cities experiencing significantly higher rate increases relative to the state as a whole is very similar to that of Montana, Idaho’s neighboring state.

5. Montana
November 2009 Unemployment: 6.5%

November 2010 Unemployment: 7.1%

Percent Change: 9.2%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 35,100

City where rate has increased the most: Missoula: 6% to 7.1%, an 18.3% difference.

A recent poll released by the Montana chamber of commerce shows that the top concern of voters in the state is unemployment. The jobless rate in the state increased from 6.5% to 7.1% November 2009 to November 2010, a 9.2% change. Cities like Missoula and Great Falls have seen the worst of the employment drop-off, with 18.3% and 17.3% gains in the last year. Montana’s unemployment is the highest it has been in five months.

4. Utah

November 2009 Unemployment: 6.3%

November 2010 Unemployment: 7.2%

Percent Change: 14.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 97,700

City where rate has increased the most: Provo: 5.9% to 6.9%, a 16.9% change.

As is the case for much of the nation, the housing market continues to suffer in Utah. Many of the smaller cities have performed generally well compared with the rest of the state. However, Salt Lake City’s unemployment increased from 6.2% to 7.1%, a 14.5% change. The Capitol – which accounts for roughly half of the state’s population – appears to be the cause of the Utah’s rate increase, which is 14.3%. Utah Department of Workforce Services’ Chief Economist Mark Knold said that Utah employers are relying more on increased demand for productivity from current workers, rather than expanding their workforces.

3. Louisiana

November 2009 Unemployment: 6.7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 7.7%

Percent Change: 14.9%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 162,600

City where rate has increased the most: Baton Rouge – 6.3% to 7.7%, a 22.2% change

Unemployment in Louisiana is actually down slightly from last month’s rate of 8.1%, but this is significantly higher than the 6.7% rate in November. In Baton Rouge, unemployment has increased 22%. New Orleans unemployment has increased 15.9%. The largest job loss over the past year was in the government sector. The relatively low unemployment rate in New Orleans is the result of mass migration out of the city due to the events of Hurricane Katrina.

2. Nevada

November 2009 Unemployment: 12.2%

November 2010 Unemployment: 14%

Percent Change : 14.8%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 186,700

City where rate has increased the most: Las Vegas: 12.5% to 14.3%, a 14.4% change.

Nevada’s unemployment increased 14.8% last year, surpassing Michigan as the state with the highest rate. This is largely due to how much one of Nevada’s main sources of jobs, tourism, has suffered as a result of the recession. As people have become more frugal with their money, Las Vegas has reached an unemployment rate of 14.3%.  The unemployment rate increase in the state (14.8%) is nearly identical to the rate of increase in Las Vegas (14.4%).

1. Colorado

November 2009 Unemployment: 7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 8.7%

Percent Change: 24.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 231,700

City where rate has increased the most: Colorado Springs: 7.5% to 9.4% – a 25.3% change.

With a November 2009 to November 2010 rate increase of nearly 25%, Colorado’s unemployment is now at the highest it has been in more than two decades. However, according to an article in the Associated Press, hiring has actually increased in the state, and the inflated unemployment rate is the result of more people moving to the state looking for jobs. This higher jobless rate appears to be centered in the major cities: Denver saw a 13.8% increase and the rate in Colorado Springs went up 25.3%. The sectors which experienced the most job losses were leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation, and utilities.

The States That Are Most Improved

10. North Dakota

November 2009 Unemployment: 3.7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 3.3%

Percent Change: -10.8%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 12,100

City which has improved the most: Fargo, 3.7% to 3.5%, a change of -5.4%.

North Dakota has decreased its unemployment rate by 10.8% from November 2009 to November 2010, the tenth greatest change nationwide.  What makes this all the more impressive, however, is that the state also has the lowest rate of joblessness in the country.  It is the only state with unemployment below 4%, and even in November 2009 its rate was just 3.7%.  The following year it dropped to 3.3%.  This means that of the 363,477 people who make up North Dakota’s labor force, only 12,100 are unemployed.  Similar unemployment rates are reported for the state’s major metropolitan areas, such as Fargo, Bismarck, and Grand Forks.

9. Vermont

November 2009 Unemployment: 6.4%

November 2010 Unemployment: 5.7%

Percent Change: -10.9%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 20,300

City which has improved the most: Burlington, 5.6% to 4.8%, a change of -14.3%

Vermont has one of the country’s lowest unemployment rates, and it is actively decreasing that rate even further. The state has lowered unemployment by 10.9% from November 2009 to November 2010.  Some of the state’s more populated areas have done even better to cut their rates of joblessness.  Burlington, for instance, has lowered its unemployment rate 14.3% since November 2009 to 4.8%, compared with the state’s overall rate of 5.7%.

8. Wyoming

November 2009 Unemployment: 7.2%

November 2010 Unemployment: 6.4%

Percent Change: -11.1%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 18,700

City which has improved the most: Casper, 7.7% to 6.7%, a change of -13%.

Wyoming’s unemployment rate has decreased by 11.1% from November 2009 to November 2010.  Unemployment peaked in January 2010 at 8.6% with natural resources and mining, including oil and gas, and construction, both of which are major economic sectors in Wyoming, losing the greatest amount of jobs.  Since then, unemployment has decreased and jobs have been added in natural resources and mining.  There has also been consistent job growth in educational and health services, and in government.  The state’s Department of Employment estimates the employment rate to increase 1.2% in 2011.

7. Wisconsin

November 2009 Unemployment: 8%

November 2010 Unemployment: 7.1%

Percent Change: -11.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 194,600

City which has improved the most: Janesville, 11.4% to 9.4%, a change of -17.5%.

Wisconsin’s state unemployment rate has dropped from 8% in November 2009 to 7.1% in November 2010, improving by 11.3%.  This places the state’s jobless rate at over two percent less than the national average.  The state is expected to add 26,000 jobs in 2011 and 59,000 jobs in 2012, according to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue.

6. District of Colombia

November 2009 Unemployment: 11.5%

November 2010 Unemployment: 10.2%

Percent Change: -11.3%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 33,800

The District of Colombia maintains a high level of unemployment, however the area is doing well in decreasing that rate.  From November 2009 to November 2010 the unemployment rate was reduced by 11.3%, due to the addition of 24,300 jobs.  The unemployment rate did rise slightly from October to November 2010, however this is most likely the result of people rejoining the labor force after abandoning their job searches.

5. Illinois

November 2009 Unemployment: 10.4%

November 2010 Unemployment: 9.2%

Percent Change: -11.5%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 613,300

City which has improved the most: Peoria, 10.8% to 9.3%, a change of 13.9%

Illinois’ unemployment rate has decreased by 11.6% from November 2009 to November 2010.  The state now has an unemployment rate of 9.2%, compared to the previous 10.4%.  Unemployment also has fallen in every metropolitan area of the state for the third month in a row.  This is something that has not happened in Illinois since 2006.  The similarities between the unemployment rates of Illinois and the state’s metro areas is indicative of where job growth is occurring.  Unemployment in the Chicago metropolitan area, for example, decreased by 12.6% over the same time period.  The sectors which are expected to experience the most growth in 2011 are health care, education and computer technology.

Also read: Three Million Jobs Created By the Fed, But No One Can Find Them

4. South Carolina

November 2009 Unemployment: 12.1%

November 2010 Unemployment: 10.7%

Percent Change: -11.6%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 230,400

City which has improved the most: Spartanburg, 12.7% to 10.9%, a change of -14.2%

Although South Carolina continues to have a higher unemployment rate than the national average, it is making considerable improvements.  From November 2009 to November 2010, the state’s unemployment rate dropped from 12.1% to 10.7%, a decrease of 11.6%  This is due in large part to growth in the areas of manufacturing, wholesale trade, and health services.  From October 2010 to November 2010, the number of employed people increased by 2,610.

3. Alabama

November 2009 Unemployment: 10.4%

November 2010 Unemployment: 9%

Percent Change: -13.5%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 191,900

City which has improved the most: Florence-Muscle Shoals, 10.1% to 8.3%, a change of 17.8%

Alabama was hit extremely hard by the recession.  State unemployment grew from a mild 2.7% in April 2007 to 11.8% in January 2010.  From November 2009 to November 2010, however, the state’s jobless rate has dropped from 10.4% to 9%, a decrease of 13.5%.  9% is slightly above the October 2010 rate of 8.9%, however this most likely implies that many unemployed Alabamians who had given up looking for work have resumed their job searches, a positive sign.  Those who cease looking for work for at least one month are no longer counted in federal unemployment studies.  Many of Alabama’s metropolitan areas are experiencing even greater rates of decreasing unemployment, such as the Anniston-Oxford area, where unemployment has dropped by 15.2%.

2. New Hampshire

November 2009 Unemployment: 6.5%

November 2010 Unemployment: 5.4%

Percent Change: -16.9%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 40,300

City which has improved the most: Manchester, 6.6% to 5.3%, a change of -19.7%

New Hampshire has undergone huge improvements since November 2009, with a total decrease in unemployment of 16.9%.  Although the state’s jobless rate peaked within this period, hitting 7.1% in February 2009, it has since settled at 5.4%, where it has remained since October.  4,800 jobs have been added in business and professional services since November 2009, and although 4,600 jobs in leisure and hospitality were lost from October to November 2010, a sum 2,800 have been added since November of last year.  Manchester, the state’s largest city, has experienced a decrease of 19.7%.

1. Michigan

November 2009 Unemployment: 13.7%

November 2010 Unemployment: 11.3%

Percent Change: -17.5%

Unemployed as of November 2010: 542,200

City which has improved the most: Monroe, from 14.4% to 10.9%, a change of 24.3%

Although the state still features one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, Michigan has decreased the number of unemployed people in the state at a greater rate than any other from November 2009 to November 2010, cutting back by 17.5%. Unfortunately, part of the reason for this “improvement” is that many laid-off workers have given up on their job searches.  Michiganders who quit searching for work or leave the state are no longer counted as “unemployed” by the state.  In other words, the population considered to be the state’s labor force is shrinking, and so the number considered to be unemployed is shrinking.

Michael B. Sauter, Charles B. Stockdale, Douglas A. McIntyre