Turmoil in Libya and elsewhere in North Africa and the Middle East is causing any number of prognosticators to come out of the woodwork and predict that gasoline prices could or will rise to $4/gallon or even $5/gallon. Who is saying what, and on what basis?

The worst news first. Here are some of the predictions for $5/gallon gasoline:

MyGallons.com – Americans Protecting Themselves from War in the Middle East and $5+ Gas Prices, According to MyGallons.com

TV 8, New Haven, CT – $5 a gallon gas possible

San Jose Mercury News – Get ready for gas prices in California above $4 a gallon

Heritage Foundation – 10 Things You Need to Know About High Gas Prices and Obama’s Oil Policy

myfox.com (Orlando, FL) – Gas station charging nearly $5 a gallon

WSET TV (Lynchburg, VA) – Could The Price of Gas Hit $5 by Summer?

KHON TV (Honolulu) – Expert: $5 gas in Hawaii not unreasonable

KETV (Omaha) – Gas Prices Could Reach $5 Per Gallon

Renewable Energy World – Ethanol the Answer to $5 Gallon Gasoline

USA Today – If Libyan unrest spreads, gas could reach $5

Here’s the money quote from the article: “If you are looking at the disruption of movement and production in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, you’re easily talking $5 gas,” says Peter Beutel, president of energy adviser Cameron Hanover. “We have all the wrong things working together at the right time: an economic recovery, (stocks) making new highs, a lower dollar, strong seasonal demand and unrest in the heart of oil production.”

And here are the optimists, who think $4/gallon is the top, at least between now and Memorial Day:

Daily Finance – Higher Pump Prices? Yes. But Not $5 a Gallon

KGO TV, San Francisco, CA – Are you ready for $4 gas?

Washington Post – Zandi Calls $4 Gasoline ‘Uncomfortable’ for US Economy

Moneywatch.com – Oil Surges: Will $5 Gas Follow?

Palm Beach Post – $4 gas by this summer?

The Birmingham (AL) News – Gas prices likely to hit $4 a gallon in Birmingham; our commenters aren’t happy but are suspicious

Muncie (IN) Star Press – East Central Indiana gas price jump only the start?

WFAA TV (Dallas, TX) – Gas prices on the way to $4 a gallon… or higher

National Journal – Libya: Why a Two-Percent Oil Producer is Rattling Global Markets

Atlanta Journal Constitution – Gas at $5 a gallon? It’s expected to rise, but that’s a ‘worst case’ scenario

Here’s the money quote: Tampa-based AAA spokeswoman, Jessica Brady told the AJC, “I don’t think it’s fair to consumers to create a false sense of panic.”

Our own sense is that a lot depends on what actually happens to the petroleum industry infrastructure in Libya. If it is seriously damaged, the loss of the Libyan crude could drive prices up faster. If the infrastructure comes through relatively unscathed, production could be restarted quickly and the latest crisis would be mitigated.

There’s not much disagreement that $4/gallon gasoline is in our future. Whether gasoline hits $5/gallon is still arguable.

Paul Ausick

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