Less than two years ago, netbooks sales were going to tear the heart out of laptop makers. Companies led by Asus stormed US consumer electronics stores with $300 machine ideal for web surfing and e-mail.
Research firm DisplaySearch said in 2009 netbook sales worldwide would rise 100% to 33 million. At roughly the same time IDC wrote:
While worldwide desktop PC sales are expected to remain flat into 2010, IDC expects them to continue to dip slightly in the United States. Portable PC sales, however, are expected to rise in all regions, with U.S. sales projected at 45 million units in 2010 and on to 61.9 million units in 2013. Worldwide, portable PC sales are expected to reach 150.2 million units in 2010, before hitting 250.6 million in 2013.
Will tablet sales suffer the same fate? Probably not. Apple has made its own market for products several time. The first was with the iPod in 2001. It created a market for multimedia players which had not existed before. Apple then changed the smartphone market and caused it to expand rapidly with the iPhone. Sales of the iPad so far have been stupendous. UBS estimates sales of the Apple product will hit 28 million this year.
Tablets are also priced close to many laptops. A high end iPad retails for $829 when bought through AT&T (NYSE: T) or Verizon Wireless. Tablets are not a way for consumers to save money. They are a way to offer consumers machines that are superior to PCs in many way. Tablets usually have better multimedia capability. They are unusually portable. Their processing power has risen rapidly. Netbooks were always considered underpowered compared with laptops.
The tablet is also about to become a flagship for most major PC companies. Samsung and it Galaxy product, Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) all expect to get part of Apple’s market, whether that is true or not.
The proof of the legs of tablets will be the sales of the iPad 2. If it slows from the growth rate of the original iPad, it may be a sign that the tablet craze was short. But, that won’t happen
Douglas A. McIntyre
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