History could be about to repeat itself. In 2008, gasoline prices moved above $3/gallon and sales of gas-guzzling SUVs, pickups, and some cars plummeted. With gasoline prices moving inexorably toward $4/gallon today, sales of the gas-guzzlers could hit automakers hard, just as they are recovering to slow sales in 2010.

For the first two months of 2011, about 1.8 million cars and light trucks were sold. Of that total, 50.6% were light trucks, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Market Data Center. Light trucks, which includes SUVs, get better mileage today than they did two years ago, but they still trail smaller, lighter cars in mpg ratings. And automakers know what follows: “As soon as [gasoline] goes above $3, if your car is a gas-guzzler, you can’t sell them any more in the United States,” an auto executive told reporters at the Geneva Auto Show. [http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/oil-spikes-may-hurt-auto-recovery-boost-electric-car-sales_527137.html]

Now Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) both have seen most of their sales growth in the first two months of 2011 in truck sales. Ford’s light truck sales grew 17.5% year-over-year, and GM’s grew 51%. Light trucks accounted for 60% of GM’s sales in February, and 63% of Ford’s sales. Chrysler LLC sold 95,102 vehicles in February, of which 81% were light trucks.

Compare these totals with Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM), where light trucks accounted for 43% of total sales, and Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE: HMC), with light trucks providing 46% of sales. A Toyota executive at the Geneva show noted, “Customers in the U.S. are the most sensitive to oil prices. When they go up, hybrids fly out of showrooms and SUVs and pickup truck sales fall.”

Well, hybrids are sort of flying out the door. In the first two months of 2011, Toyota sold 24,174 Prius hybrids, a year-over-year gain of 47%. That was nearly eight times more than the next best-selling hybrid, the Honda Insight, which pushed out 3,276 cars in two months.

And the all-electric Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt? A total of 756 vehicles in two months. These models have a long way to go before they add anything but bragging rights to their makers’ bottom line.

Of the 1.8 million vehicles sold in the first two months of the year, just over 43,000 are hybrids or all-electric. The interesting thing is that hybrid sales grew 19.5% month-over-month in February and 39% year-over-year. Total vehicle sales grew 23% year-over-year, and total light truck sales grew 31.7%.

If the auto executives are right about US sensitivity to gasoline prices, those US car makers that depend on light truck sales are about to face some tough times. Clearly, a Toyota Prius can’t substitute for a Ford pick-up or a Chevy Tahoe in every case, but there are sure to be potential buyers for the gas-guzzlers who decide either to purchase a more fuel-efficient vehicle or, more likely, to go home in the same old paid-for ride.

Paul Ausick

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