The global growth rate may have slowed recently compared to OECD expectations. The US is the surprising exception, which is hard to fathom.
US unemployment is still stubbornly high.
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a mild loss of growth momentum in most major economies for April 2011.
A notable exception is the United States which continues expanding relative to trend, albeit more moderately than in last month’s assessment
Growth also seems to have moderated in China, which may have already been confirmed by PMI data from May. Brazil and India also had modest slowing compared to expectations. Inflation may have taken hold enough in those economies that economic activity has been pressured by high prices.
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Douglas A. McIntyre
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